…inflation growth have typically happened during recessions, I.e., they are also a sign of economic weakness. On the bright side, because wages are “stickier” than prices, typically as recessions beat…

…still well above the typical monthly increase in prices pre-pandemic:  On a YoY basis, at 7.1% consumer inflation is the highest since the big Reagan recession of 1981-82. My favorite…

…orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months before a recession, and in three cases did not actually cross the line until the first month of the recession…

…recession itself – although the recession did not begin until after the total index fell below 50, and in fact usually below 48. In other words, this metric strongly suggests…

…aside, occasionally I get asked why I write about expansions and recessions. An important reason is, pretty much by definition during recessions jobs and income decline. During expansions they, well,…

…there has usually been a recession (note: I’ve split the data into 2 30 year+ segments for clarity): The exceptions have been big slowdowns that were not quite recessions, e.g.,…

…during recessions, and *always* during each recession, although they may not turn negative until several months into the recession. In short, they are an excellent coincident marker for recessions. Here…

…right scale) since the latter statistic started in 1970: Historically a recession has usually followed within a year of single family housing permits down 25% from their peak, as they…

…right scale) since the latter statistic started in 1970: Historically a recession has usually followed within a year of single family housing permits down 25% from their peak, as they…

…and then fully inverted. By early 2001, as the Fed along with everyone else smelled that a recession was imminent, Fed rates came down, and only as the recession itself…