…recession, and in three cases did not actually cross the line until the first month of the recession itself – although the recession did not begin until after the total…

…50 within 6 months before a recession, and in three cases did not actually cross the line until the first month of the recession itself – although the recession did…

…is the close-up of that metric for the past year: In short, most of the leading indicators of a jobs recession are either signaling an oncoming recession now (temporary jobs,…

…first, while until the Great Recession, service providing jobs barely declined at all YoY even during recessions. Here is the close-up of the same since mid-2021: Service jobs came roaring…

…typically used by the NBER to determine if a recession has occurred, also increased nicely, by 0.2%, in December, to a new all-time high: If you wanted to tout good…

…to the pandemic is that all 4 turned negative prior to each recession, with the sole exception that the manufacturing work week was flat YoY prior to the 2008 recession….

…December 1979, just before the January start of the 1980 recession, and 1 week in November 1989, 8 months before the onset of the July 1990 recession.  Parenthetically, it is…

…Sahm, stating that the economy is in a recession when the 3 month average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5% from its low of the previous 12 months. Note that…

…in the housing market has finally happened. This is an important reason why, while I have removed the “recession warning” from the end of last year, the “recession watch” remains,…

…before the onset of the 1991, 2001, and 2008 recessions. As a result, as time went on, refinancing declined sharply. There were renewed bouts of refinancing after the Great Recession,…