…and construction. That’s because the goods sector is more volatile than the services sector. The former almost always turns down before the onset of a recession, while the latter in…

…already in recession even before the government shutdown started. It resembles very much the “austerity” program that was tried in the UK and other European countries after the Great Recession,…

…i.e., recession. The last two reports before the government shutdown were very much “hard landing” reports. Thus my focus now, as it would have been two months ago, is whether…

…adjusted for both population and inflation (red in the graphs below). This on average turns down about a year before a recession begins. When people begin to cut back on…

…at Angry bear also. “Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag ‘Recession Watch” is warranted,’” Angry Bear. “In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a…

Introduction: In and around 2007 – 2009 the US economy was in or coming out of recession. Much of this was cause by lax lending in a rapidly growing economy….

…recession except for the shallow, producer-led 2001 recession; but from the 1980s through at least 2015 they were also negative for extended periods without there being a recession. On the…

…awake during the last five years. Many of us still remember when Bloomberg put the odds of recession, this was in 2022, put the odds of recession over the next…

…accepted cause of a recession, and the only time such appears to be associated is this current recession in 72 or so years of having recessions, then something has radically…

By divorced one like Bush Via C & L via CR comes the NYT asking when will the recession be over. They have 11different responses. Roubini is there suggesting we…