…an annualized rate of 3% — no recession there. This contrasts dramatically with forecasts — some rated the probability of a recession at 100%*. In an earlier post I have…

…historically has been a reliable (but of course not perfect!) harbinger of recession. And while yesterday’s construction spending report was equivocal, there are other signs suggesting that just such a…

…most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether there is further decline towards a recession.  For this month at least, the verdict was clear: both the…

…we get one! Let me be clear: if there were no special factors, this report would be recessionary, period. And there were some signs of real weakness in this report…

…Unlike the Great Recession, 2020 conditions stem from a health crisis. The shutdown triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has had a relatively small effect on banks. In 2020 Goldman Sachs…

…isn’t necessarily recessionary. As the longer-term graph below shows, there have been similar stalls in 1995, 1999, and 2016 without recessions following: But on the other hand, outright declines in…

…weak as they are now without there being a recession. Again, this reinforces that the labor situation, while not recessionary, is weak. Although it isn’t part of the quick and…

 – by New Deal democrat Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession….

…construction went negative in late 2023, and turned ever more negative through the end of 2024. They are still down more YoY than at any time entering a recession, except…

…the prior year’s tax receipts. Since during a recession, those receipts go down, governments have to make cuts that last up to several years after the recession is over. Here’s…