Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Swiss summit kick-starts Ukraine peace process

I have following the SWI for a period of time. When I get a newspaper, it makes for some interesting read. This particular article discusses a potential meeting of ninety countries. The peace process was initiated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asking the Swiss to initiate such a conference. I can not imagine what he […]

Climate adoptation model

by David Zetland The one-handed economist Humans are not doing enough mitigation to slow — let alone reverse — climate change chaos. Average global temperatures are now +1.xxC, far above the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to […]

Overreacting to Inflation While the Labor Market Cools

Post-June FOMC: By Overreacting Hawkishly, the Fed Risks Being Behind the Ball by Preston Mui employ america org The simple fact as seen in a longer-run view, inflation has fallen greatly. Whether you start from its peak at 5.6% in February 2022 or 4.2% when the Fed raised rates to the current level, core PCE inflation—which […]

Immigration and the housing market freeze are making the “last mile” of disinflation harder, not the Phillips Curve

If you look at Part 1 and Part 2 of The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 CBO projections. The estimation of Net Immigration varies anywhere from 2.7 to 3.3 million to the US in 2024. In Part 1, of CBO’s current estimates, net immigration is larger than the agency estimated last year, by 0.7 million people […]

Fastest wage growth over the last four years

Report on the impact from the expanded unemployment insurance, economic impact payments, aid to states and localities, child tax credits, and temporary protection from eviction amongst other measures as reported by the authors. These actions provided relief to workers and their families to help them weather the recession. These measures also fed the surge in […]

Is the Taylor Swift ERAs tour in the UK inflationary?

Tyler Cowen links to an article suggesting that Taylor Swift’s upcoming concerts in London may boost inflation and delay an interest rate cut by the Bank of England. I am not a macroeconomist, but color my skeptical.  For one thing, a short blip in the demand for hotel rooms in London will likely increase room […]

Amicus Presenting to Judge Aileen Cannon Next Week in the Trump Case

Taken from Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse I thought perhaps the argument going on in front of Federal Judge Cannon about Jack Smith’s appointment to prosecute XPres. Donald Trump might need some explanation. I am borrowing from Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse as a subscriber. This is kind of a sideshow to the real issue of trump […]

FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased in Q1 2024

by Bill McBride Calculated Risk, May 29, 2024 The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 2024: Reports from 4,568 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) report aggregate net income of $64.2 billion in first quarter 2024, an increase of $28.4 billion (79.5 percent) from the prior quarter. A […]