Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Snail’s pace of housing market rebalancing, as existing sales remain range bound, and inventory has not increased enough to relieve pricing pressure

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales have very limited value in economic forecasting, since they are the trade of an existing product rather than indicating growth or contraction in the creation of a new product. Thus my main focus at present on this data is the extent to which it shows – or […]

AI for the win!

The last decade has seen many initiatives toward clean, green, and low-carbon energy, as well as a global shift toward electric vehicles and automation. Many of these initiatives were enabled rare earth magnets, which is why rare earth magnets are heavily used now and will continue to be used in the future. When my dad […]

Elections are about trust, blame, and identity.  Here’s how to use that against Trump.

According to one well-known theory of electoral competition, voters care about policies, and candidates pick policies to maximize their appeal to voters.  This suggests that campaigns will try to appeal to the median voter.  There is obviously something to this model, and this year, as always, it is a safe bet that each side will, […]

Housing permits and starts the lowest since 2020, units under construction also decline further, but no yellow caution flag yet

 – by New Deal democrat I’ve written repeatedly in the past few months that I am paying especial attention to the manufacturing and construction sectors for signs of weakness now that the supply chain tailwind for the economy has ended. At the beginning of this month, one show appeared to have dropped, as the ISM […]

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s Bill Takes on Private Equity Milking Hospitals

Finally, someone of stature is taking a look at private equity acquiring hospital chains, milking their funds, and leaving a shell of what the original hospital was earlier. I am hoping Elizabeth Warren can force the issues with these take overs private equity takeovers. In the end, many communities depending on these hospitals are left […]

Jobless claims still positive for forecasting purposes; the unresolved seasonality issue should be resolved shortly

 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s jobless claims report continued the uptrend we’ve seen for the past month. But it still looks more likely than not that it is mainly unresolved post-pandemic seasonality. We’ll probably get a more definitive answer to that issue in th next several weeks. Initial Jobless claims declined 5,000 for […]

Keep getting those COVID jabs, peeps!

Pandemics are bad for economies. Vaccinations are an important bulwark against pandemics. But all viruses and all vaccines are not alike. In the case of the annual flu vaccine, annual vaccination against flu variants can be a problem: antibody-producing memory cells crowd out new antibody-producing cells, and people develop relatively few neutralizing antibodies against the […]

Whether You Have One or Two Shots of Whiskey Occasionally, It Affects Your Health

The latest news? Do not drink. A shot of anything is generally 1.50 fluid ounces, which is 41.7 grams. Whiskey can range in proof, starting at 80 proof. Simple math and using 80 proof whisky (40% alcohol) yields 16.68 grams of alcohol. I am going to guess Bourbon is similar. I got tired of reading the […]