This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. […]
– by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are […]
I attended 7th grade in a building that was built of brick and wood. In 8th grade, I was moved to the new junior high, a formed concrete building in the modern fortress architecture style. Now, it seems, what was old is new again. Wood is making a comeback, with a focus on a green […]
As usual Trump is bleating about the upcoming election and how he will be cheated through fraudulent actions if he loses. Another point being made in this commentary is the pricing of goods which went up 14% while corporate profits when up five times as much. A Kroger Director admits such for some food products. […]
What is the issue(s) here is larger hospitals such as “Bon Secours (48 hospitals) has been slashing services” at its facility in a poorer, predominantly Black part of Richmond. At the same time, it is ‘investing in the city’s wealthier, white neighborhoods.’” By maintaining the Richmond hospital, it keeps access to the 340B program, provides […]
Two excellent short and very readable mini articles (to be redundant). Both pieces are pointing to a direction the Fed should take in the next year or sooner with regard to Climate Change. It is doubtful they will do so until catastrophe hits. What is a few $billion more in spending, right??? This aspect of […]
I guess if you are X-President D. Trump and a civilian, nothing still applies to him. Even showing respect at Arlington. This is a man who called Vets losers. Trump: “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” On McCain . . . “He’s not a war hero,” Trump said in 2015 while […]
– by New Deal democrat Over the past year, I have downgraded the importance of manufacturing indicators as a forecasting tool for the economy as a whole. This post explores why and suggests a revised tool that may be a helpful short leading indicator. On Monday, durable goods orders rebounded sharply in July from their […]
Here’s the Penn Wharton Budget Model breakdown for how much each candidate’s economic proposals will affect the national debt: “We estimate that the Trump Campaign tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over the next 10 years on a conventional basis and by $4.1 trillion on a dynamic basis that includes […]
QUARTZ The ‘Lock-in Effect’ is Easing. Here is What It means for the Housing Market Homeowners are beginning to give up on waiting for lower mortgage rates. That could be good news for potential homebuyers. In the first quarter of this year, six of every seven homeowners, or 86%, have a mortgage rate below 6%, […]