The election is very close. This piece explains why the polls could easily be off by 5 points or more. Because the polling errors are very likely correlated across states, this means there is a reasonable chance that the election will not end up being close, but we have no idea who is ahead. Trump […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, I’ll take a quick look at this morning’s headline GDP numbers for Q3 before passing on to my more important focus on the release’s leading components. Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3. Just like Q2, this is a perfectly good number in line with the […]
Republicans have long objected to the ACA, and Trump tried several times to have it overturned; he’s claimed he’ll replace it with something better, but in eight years, he’s never come up with even a rudiment of a proposal. And here’s Speaker Johnson at a campaign stop yesterday: “No Obamacare?” an attendee asked Johnson, referring […]
by Explainer Migration Policy Institute Immigrants in the United States commit crimes at lower rates than the U.S.-born population, not-with-standing the assertion by critics that immigration is linked to higher rates of criminal activity. This reality of reduced criminality, which holds across immigrant groups including unauthorized immigrants, has been demonstrated through research as well as […]
– by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. For several years, my mantra for a lot of statistics has been “deceleration.” Well, in the case of the employment market, we have passed the point where deceleration […]
The last 4 years of Border Encounters appears to be more than what the Trump Administration experienced. Is this a bad thing? Why did it occur? Has there been more crime? Encounter data includes U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible, and Title 42 Expulsion. Demographics for […]
– by New Deal democrat This morning’s repeat house price indexes from the FHFA and Case Shiller continued to show deceleration in this metric which is very important to home buyers. Specifically, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through August, U.S. house prices according to both indexes rose 0.3%. This is a slight […]
My wife and I are recently retired. We moved to New England to be close to our grandson and his parents. We’re living independently in a three-bedroom detached house. My parents were able to live independently into their early 80s, when my dad began to dement. My mom was much smaller than him, and wasn’t […]
There is considerable doubt about Richard Glossip’s guilt for a brutal 1997 murder in Oklahoma City, for which he has twice been sentenced to death. It also appears unquestionable that he has never gotten a fair trial. Glossip’s case is now before the U.S. Supreme Court, where his fate may actually be determined by the incoherence of the court’s recusal […]
A bit of a rewrite of an article. The Social Security scandal Trump doesn’t want you to know about by James Downie MSNBC Something else Donald Trump doesn’t want you to know about and how it will impact you. This type of plan always comes out later and then everyone says; “well if I had […]