Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Preliminary economically weighted ISM average for June continues in “recession watch” territory

 – by New Deal democrat As usual, we start out the month with reports on both manufacturing and construction. Ill post separately on construction. Additionally, the May JOLTS reports was posted, but I’ll discuss that tomorrow. So let’s start with the ISM manufacturing report, a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished […]

Trump’s America: shrinking our way to excellence

Abroad, Trump is sending American hard power in retreat by pulling back on NATO and threatening to invade and take over a NATO country. American soft power under Trump is also in retreat, with the abandonment of USAID and Voice of America. At home, Trump is shrinking American agriculture by the USAID cuts. He’s levied […]

The Brushy Mountain State Prison of the Everglades

I grew up about 20 miles from Brushy Mountain State Prison. You may remember it as the place James Earl Ray was held until, briefly, he wasn’t. He escaped and was re-captured. The appeal of Brushy Mountain included rough terrain and venomous snakes that inhabited the surrounding area. Copperhead Alcatraz. I once visited the prison […]

The US federal deficit isn’t the scariest deficit

While Congress debates just how much to goose the federal deficit, the global climate budget is even further out of balance that previously feared: “But another approach can give us a very clear sense of what’s going on: track how much heat enters Earth’s atmosphere and how much heat leaves. This is Earth’s energy budget, […]

Pay close attention to real personal spending on goods

 – by New Deal democrat  This week data arrives in two batches: a smaller batch (ISM manufacturing and construction spending) tomorrow, and a huge tranche (nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, ISM services, and factory orders) on Thursday. Which means I might take Wednesday off, and/or delay reporting on some of Thursday’s data until Friday. In the meantime, […]

Successful in a Primary? Don’t expect the Right Wingers Will Let you Pass . . .

Bit of a rewrite . . . Democratic socialist who would become the first Muslim to be NYC mayor if elected. He first has to get past the right-wingers who have come out of hiding since Zohran Mamdani’s success in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Being a Democrat is one thing. Being […]

Gaining Ground after a Political Shooting? It did Not Happen Like it was Supposed to . . .

After the shootings, Utah Representative Lee wrote on X: “This is what happens when Marxists don’t get their way.” In another post, he posted a photo of Boelter with the caption “Nightmare on Waltz Street.” The caption appeared to be a reference to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat. Lee has since deleted the posts […]