Prophecy
As my AB peeps know, I loves me some prophecy. As a consumer, not a producer.
My wife and I play this little game. If I make a prediction, she grabs a post-it note and writes it down, then dates it and makes me sign it. She saves them and we review them periodically. The results confirm my long-held suspicion that my aptitude for prophecy is mixed.
But having read Ken Rogoff’s book “Our dollar, your problem,” I’m emboldened to make the following prediction:
Within the next five years, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency.
My prediction, not his. Write it down. If you mail it to me with a stamped return address envelope, I’ll sign it and return it.
My wife and I play this little game. If I make a prediction, she grabs a post-it note and writes it down, then dates it and makes me sign it. She saves them and we review them periodically. The results confirm my long-held suspicion that my aptitude for prophecy is mixed.
But having read Ken Rogoff’s book “Our dollar, your problem,” I’m emboldened to make the following prediction:
Within the next five years, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency.
My prediction, not his. Write it down. If you mail it to me with a stamped return address envelope, I’ll sign it and return it.
You are probably correct but I would call it the world’s dominant currency. The Bretton Woods agreement established the dollar as the world’s reserve currency; meaning the USA maintained the value of the dollar in gold and all other countries backed their currency by holding a reserve of dollars. I don’t think any such reserve agreements will be made with any other currency.
My guess is Trump will cause the rest of the world to curtail trading with the USA and establish other main trading partners. China will be the central player. So yes you are correct (assuming the courts or Congress don’t overrule Trump) the dollar will take a back seat probably to the yuan.
@Mark,
You can call it whatever you want. Actual economists continue to call the dollar the world’s reserve currency even after Bretton Woods collapsed and the dollar went off the gold standard in 1971.
It’s far from clear to me or to Dr. Rogoff that the renminbi will replace the dollar, at least not in the next five years.
Twenty years ago in front of a classroom full of computer science students I predicted China would be the world power of the twenty-first (21st) century, the hegemony. Leave the veracity to the reader though sadly I’m right more often than I care to be
These day’s I’m treating “prophecy” as I do the weather prediction: fools, newcomers and if you don’t like it (the weather) wait a minute
Really, it can be scary sometimes …