Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The “gold standard” QCEW suggests there may have been no growth at all in jobs so far this year

 – by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for Q1 of this year was released this morning. Perhaps more importantly, the numbers for last year were finalized. This forms the “preliminary benchmark” for the actual reported changes to payrolls over that period which will show up in next February’s report for […]

Political Appointees will Review Scientific Grants

A first level of review is carried out by a scientific review group (SRG). It is composed (primarily) of non-federal scientists who have expertise in relevant scientific disciplines and current research areas. Their role is to assess the overall impact a proposed project (or resource, or training, or center, etc.) will likely have on the […]

Trump’s Tariffs exceeded his power under IEEPA

Briefly: Two similar versions of the same tariffs case. What we are waiting on is whether SCOTUS will hear this case as the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld the Court of Interntional Appeals ruling by a vote of 7-4. “Group of small businesses calls on Supreme Court to decide tariffs case,” SCOTUSblog. With […]

The Democratic strategy on the budget is coming into focus.  I have doubts.

There are more stories suggesting that the Democrats are preparing to hang tough in budget negotiations.  But it’s not clear if their tough talk is just marketing aimed at appeasing base voters, or if it reflects a newfound commitment to budgetary hardball.  Nor is it clear that Democrats have a negotiating strategy that will be […]

Scenes from the no good, rotten, terrible, and abysmal August jobs report

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a more in-depth look at the leading indicators for the economy in Friday’s abysmal employment report. As shown in the graph below, employment in goods has historically turned down first; indeed, in some recessions employment in services doesn’t turn negative YoY at all: Which is a shorthand way of […]

Rolling up the welcome mat

About 475 workers, mostly South Korean nationals, were arrested at a Hyundai Motor car battery facility under construction in Georgia. The workers were shackled at the wrists, waist and ankles. The return of ca. 300 to South Korea has been negotiated. At a time when Trump is demanded the foreign companies invest more in the […]

EPA is Turning a Blind Eye to Some of the Most Toxic Chemicals it Produces

“Advanced recycling” is a toxic scam — now the EPA is turning a blind eye to some of the most toxic chemicals it produces – Environment Defense Fund, EDF Health What’s new: Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) withdrew a proposed rule covering 18 new chemicals, which would have paused industry efforts to turn toxic […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators September 1- 5

 – by New Deal democrat My latest “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The high frequency data continues to be buoyed by financial indicators as well as consumer spending, despite the weakness we saw in, among other things, Friday’s employment report. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual […]