Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A comment on median vs. mean, and job-stratified wage growth

A comment on median vs. mean, and job-stratified wage growth  – by New Deal democrat Before today’s avalanche of data, I wanted to comment briefly on the Employment Cost Index for Q4 that was reported yesterday. This index has the advantage of weighting for type of employment. If low wage workers gain a disproportionate number of […]

December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market

December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for December showed a labor market that, while decelerating, remains relatively strong. Let me start with layoffs and discharges, which increased by 85,000 to 1.616 million (blue in the graph […]

Repeat home sale prices continue rebound; rents continue decline

Repeat home sale prices continue rebound; rents continue decline  – by New Deal democrat Since the Fed started raising interest rates almost two years ago, homebuilding has shifted away from single family houses to condos and apartments, the construction of which has made repeated all-time highs. This has become reflected in house price vs. apartment rental […]

Both production and transportation are down from 2022 peaks; why wasn’t that enough to cause a recession?

Both production and transportation are down from 2022 peaks; why wasn’t that enough to cause a recession?  – by New Deal democrat While I have written about how the Index of Leading Indicators failed last year, as the loosening of and disinflation in supply chains overwhelmed the effects of Fed tightening, it wasn’t as if […]

The Roaring 20s II : This Time It’s Fiscal

In the Washington Post David Lynch (no not that David Lynch) reports that “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery.” lternative titles Handling the blue team with velvet gloves (not used as it alleges bias when the article merely reports the facts without Ballance (TM) for once) Twin Peaks (inflation and GDP […]

Jamie Dimon wants to help poor people by . . .

Jamie Dimon says lower-income people need more help and he’d ‘pay for it by taxing the wealthy a little bit more’ Fortune Taxing the Rich? If he really wants to help the poor? Allow the tax breaks for individuals in the upper 20% sunset. reverse the tax breaks, and tax income from foreign enterprises. A […]

New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators January 22-26

Weekly Indicators for January 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then the data has a particularly noisy week, and this past week seems to have been one, as a number of – especially coincident – indicators hit an air […]