– by New Deal democrat AB: What does the Sahm rule signify? If the three-month moving average of the jobless rate rises by at least a half-percentage point from its low during the previous 12 months, then a recession has started. NDd; In my summation of Friday’s employment report, I wrote that “[t]here will probably […]
by Dean Baker Center for Economic and Policy Research That’s what readers must conclude after reading this Washington Post’s piece on President Biden’s plans to increase corporate taxes and taxes on the rich. At one point, the piece reports the response to these plans from Rep. Steven Scalise (R-La), the second-ranking Republican in the House: “He tries […]
– by New Deal democrat AB: July 3rd, NDd mentioned he would review the comparison between the Household and the Establishment Survey Reports today. He had initially look at the comparison July 3. In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further […]
What got me going to write this was reading a short blurb on The Lever about the economy. The transcript was provided and I read part of it. The content is all about supply chain which I was a part of for 40-something years. I find The Lever script (link below) interesting as it parallels […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ll spare you the introductory graphs this month, but let me reiterate my opening comments from last month: I never used to pay much attention to the ISM non-manufacturing report. That is partly because it only has a 20 year history, and partly because it seems to be more coincident […]
In a previous post, I called attention to the decline in the number of medical students who choose pediatrics as a career. Some of the slack can be taken up by nurses and physician assistants, but access to pediatricians is a growing problem. So, too, is access to pediatric care at hospitals: “Pediatric hospitals have […]
– by New Deal democrat Since tomorrow is the Big Holiday, initial and continuing claims were reported today. [Also, on a programming note, later this morning I will also post about the ISM non-manufacturing survey once it is published, since it now plays an increased role in my forecasting]. Initial claims rose 4,000 last week to […]
JOLTS report shows stabilization in almost all metrics for May – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report for May showed most metrics continued to show a slight rebounding from their March lows. The overall picture for now appears to be one of stabilization, consistent with the fabled “soft landing.” To the data: job openings (blue […]
If you want to make the big bux as a physician, you need to do procedures (e.g., endoscopies, colonoscopies, surgery). Among the most poorly compensated branches of medicine are pediatrics and geriatrics. And yet: “Pediatricians attend the same medical schools as those who enter other specialties, and education is expensive. Almost half of those who […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, the month starts out with important data on manufacturing and construction. There was bad news and good news. The bad news is that both were negative. The relatively good news is that they were so slightly negative as to be essentially flat. First, the ISM report on manufacturing […]