Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Capital goods orders rise to a new all-time record high in March

 – by New Deal democrat There was some important housing data this morning; but first I wanted to drop a brief note on the advance report on manufacturing that also was released, because it is yet more confirmation of the (surprising) strong positive trend in that sector. This report covered March, so included the first […]

Buying a Home Today May be Difficult

Sometimes, you can get the best deals when the economy is not so good. However, you may end up with a higher mortgage rate. One years we purchase a home In Schaumberg, Il for a good price and ended up with a 12% mortgage due to the economy. Since my wife’s mother was living with […]

Data Centers and Water

Not sure why. They are building in Arizona. I would think Arizona would be one of the last places to build a data center as water is not abundant, There are water issues here. Surface water is drying up. It’s no secret Arizona is worrying about its water. The Colorado River is drying up, in part due […]

Repeat home sales, new rents continue to show almost *no* inflationary pressure in shelter costs

 – by New Deal democrat Three housing metrics have been reported between yesterday and today. Yesterday Apartment List updated their National Rent Report, and today the two national repeat home sales indexes, from the FHFA and Case-Shiller, were updated through February. To cut to the chase, all three confirm that housing prices have ceased being an […]

Updating the long leading indicators: money and credit, plus overall review

– by New Deal democrat In the past week, I have been updating my suite of long leading indicators. First I looked at “real” consumer-focused indicators. Then I looked at housing, an important interface between consumers and producers, as well as corporate profits. Next I updated interest rate indicators. I this final installment I will […]

Fertility Rates

How does deportation policy impact the United States economy. It was predicted in and around 2006, decreasing birth rates in the United States would have an economic impact. Consider for a moment, Trumps deportation and limiting immigrants to the United States will only aggravate the need for Labor input. Fewer birth and an anti-immigrant policy […]

“the people with the most money and the most influence pushed for it”

A bit of Kareem on a Sunday morning. “Tax Day Shows the Gap” Kareem Takes on the News Summary by Kareem: On Tax Day 2026, three prominent voices—Nobel laureate economist Joseph E. Stiglitz, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and EU Tax Observatory founding director Gabriel Zucman—argue in The Guardian that America’s tax system systematically […]

SCOTUS Rejected Tariffs on U.S. Products and the US has to Refund Them

Additional nontechnical information on tariffs in the United States EconoFact: Tariff Payback Tariff Payback This week, the Trump administration began accepting requests for refunds of more than $166 billion in tariff payments following the Supreme Court’s February ruling: “the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.” Who Benefits: But while the refunds […]

Medigap Coverage by Race, Income, Health Status, and Age

This commentary is a breakdown of Figure 1 detailing each of the results and purposes of Medicap. I favor graphs as it is far easier to understand than reading a few pages. The charts do show issues such as income to afford Medigap and restrictions. I have Plan N which covers most of what I […]

Updating the long leading indicators: “interest rate” levels and duration spreads

 – by New Deal democrat As I noted earlier this week, I haven’t updated my suite of long leading indicators in a while, mainly because they have been overwhelmed by the economic chaos emanating from Washington, and partly also because several important ones are in terra incognito. On Monday and Wednesday I updated the non-financial […]