A rewrite of a much shorter story about state and local funding and what Trump’s Beautiful Bill (or piece of garbage) does to states. Much of Trump’s cuts are meant to fund a new tax break for the upper 10% and 1% in income. Over ten years, The Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) will cut taxes for the […]

“Zetland’s Rule for Subsidies” The one-handed economist As you know, nothing exists until an academic puts their name on it. /s Thus, I reveal my creation — the ZRS! The government should only provide subsidies that anyone can access if they meet the eligibility criteria. Examples: The ZRS thus excludes subsidies to race, gender, religion, […]

 – by New Deal democrat As anticipated, the March CPI packed a wallop, up 0.9% for the month and causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.3%, while core CPI was a tame 0.2% with a YoY% gain of 2.6%. Because of the impact of that big number, I am departing from my usual format to […]

“Recessionary signals in February personal income and spending, but some bright spots as well”  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also […]

“Adjusting minimum wages for inflation is a necessary yet modest step toward protecting affordability for low-wage workers: The case of California’s Fast-Food Council,” Economic Policy Institute Modern labor markets—particularly those that low-wage workers participate in—are characterized by significant employer power. Low-wage employers rarely if ever negotiate pay with workers, instead posting take-it-or-leave-it wage offers. Further, […]

 – by New Deal democrat While there isn’t any big economic news today, there certainly was action overnight in response to the latest TACO. As I type this, oil is back down to $90/barrel, and stock futures are soaring. This for something (correctly I think) framed as a “fragile cease fire” by J.D. Vance. But […]

Just a few thoughts and then Professor Heather will bring us to the reality of this administration. I did watch the D.C. TV series as a kid. Fake raccoon skin caps were a hot item. We did not have one and other kids did. If I remember correctly, Disney had some episodes about Mr. Crockett […]

Erica York from the Tax Foundation . . . Compared to what? The last week brought several retrospective analyses of President Trump’s first year of reciprocal tariffs, ranging from victory laps to selective trendline comparison to careful examination of what’s been learned.   It will take much longer to empirically estimate how the rapidly changing tariff environment is impacting an economy that is also subject to other […]

There’s a whiff of 2008 in the air. “Private Credit and the New World of Financial Risk,” Paul Krugman On July 15, 2007, the New York Times published an article titled “The richest of the rich, proud of a new Gilded Age.” The article was centered on a profile of Sanford Weill, CEO of Citigroup, who, like […]

– by New Deal democrat As I’ve previously noted a number of times, one of the more surprising developments in the past few months has been the resilience of manufacturing. After taking a beating following “Liberation Day” one year ago, companies adapted and resumed production if anything at an even more brisk pace. That was apparent […]