Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The shallow downturn in industrial production continues

 – by New Deal democrat Before I get to the (relatively) good news in retail sales, let’s take a look at the bad news from industrial production. On a monthly basis, production declined -0.3%. Manufacturing declined -0.4%. There were also downward revisions to last month. Both of these continue to slowly fade from their 2022 […]

A Portion of the CEPR Disability and Economic Justice Chartbook

A conversation on providing for disability. The right to work as an equal also extends to the disabled. Contingencies are made for the disabled and is a key factor in having the ability to provide for themselves. Doors that open with the touch of a button. Wheelchair accommodations to go up a step or a […]

Why hurricane effects and funky seasonal adjustments will make tomorrow’s initial claims report particularly fun

– by New Deal democrat The drought in new economic data continues through today. We’ll make up for it all at once tomorrow with jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial production.  In the meantime, last week I noted that Hurricane Helene’s impact in Florida and North Carolina was a big part of the reason for […]

A simple Misunderstanding of How Tariffs Work

October 15, 2024 Letters from an American After Trump’s bizarre performance last night in Oaks, Pennsylvania, when he stopped taking questions and just swayed to his self-curated playlist for 39 minutes, his campaign this morning canceled a scheduled interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, according to co-host of the show Joe Kernen. The campaign did not, though, […]

Where housing affordability is worst and costs are highest in the U.S.

– By Jasmine Cui and Matthew Danbury NBC News Across the country, the prospect of home ownership is slipping out of reach for the ordinary buyer. The affordability gap — an estimate of the difference between an area’s median household income and how much income is necessary to afford payments on a median-priced home in […]

Household balance sheets are in good shape

– by New Deal democrat  One of my fundamentals-based systems for monitoring the economy is to look at the health of household balance sheets. Most recessions happen when consumers are under stress. If real wages are growing, if assets that can be leveraged or cashed in (mortgage payments, home equity, stocks) are increasing in value, if […]

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in […]

No, immigrants aren’t taking all the jobs

A common right-wing grievance is that undocumented (“illegal”) immigrants are taking all the jobs. In particular, that they’re stealing jobs from native-born Americans. What’s the evidence? If it were true that immigrants were stealing jobs from native born Americans, then if you plotted labor force participation by native- and foreign-born over time, they would have […]

Healthcare Premiums Soaring Even as Inflation Eases

If we were to look at the costs of healthcare insurance for families and businesses, it has not remained the same percentage-wise for employers or employees. My initial sentence is a backwards way of saying costs are increasing faster than gains in income for either. Nothing has changed here and the foes to single payer […]