– by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago, Prof. Edward Leamer gave an important speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY, retreat called “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that speech he discussed the fact that, historically, private residential construction as a share of GDP on average peaked 7 quarters before the onset of recessions, followed […]
As my AB peeps know, I loves me some prophecy. As a consumer, not a producer. My wife and I play this little game. If I make a prediction, she grabs a post-it note and writes it down, then dates it and makes me sign it. She saves them and we review them periodically. The […]
The Fed has two jobs: (1) control inflation and (2) maximize employment. So how’s that going? “That’s a change in tone from last week, when most Fed policymakers voted to leave their influential interest rate unchanged for the fifth time this year. Fed officials had been content to wait and see how tariffs were moving […]
In support of Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice, I have been writing in support of his efforts to seek loan forgiveness which commercial business enjoys as well as US citizens. Student loan debt is the second-highest consumer debt category after mortgages. Student loan debt in the United States totals $1606.7 trillion; annual growth resumed in 2024 following […]
– by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data points indicating there is no imminent threat of recession. That continues, but what is increasingly disconcerting is the completely contrary signal from continuing claims. Let’s deal with the weekly numbers first. […]
You will read more on the profitability of healthcare plans as detailed by KFF. A brief introduction to this issue in an article by KFF. In 2023, per enrollee gross margins were highest in the Medicare Advantage market, and medical loss ratios were lowest in the individual insurance market. While both gross margins and medical […]
Charles Gaba at ACA Signups is reviewing Affordable(?) Care rate changes for 2026. We have been reading quite a bit about the new rate forthcoming for 2026. From the looks of it, I suspect many people will be going without healthcare insurance in North Carolina, etc. I will grab certain states I know some people […]
The “health” that drives private sector health insurance is the health of the corporate bottom line. As understand it, the “advantage” of Medicare Advantage was supposed to be lower costs for better benefits that only the free market could promise. How’s that working out? “UnitedHealthcare said in its second quarter earnings call that it plans […]
– by New Deal democrat We’ve settled back in to our typical post-employment week lack of new data, so today is a good day to update the leading indicators from the employment report, especially in view of their important contribution to why I went on “recession watch” yesterday. As you probably already know, because I harp […]
Pinning down the numbers making up the 16 million people without healthcare insurance by 2034. From where did the number come? Government Medicaid Healthcare Insurance covered nearly 85 million people as of June 2024. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the changes to Medicaid and health insurance outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could lead […]