Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The “Big Picture” nowcast and forecast

 – by New Deal democrat We are well into our data blackout, as no federal economic data whatsoever was released this week. Even sites that functioned in previous shutdowns, such as the Treasury Department’s “Daily Treasury Statement,” have been taken offline. This is simply not the way a functioning country works. So let me conclude this […]

U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities

U.S. International Investment Position, 2nd Quarter 2025 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) The U.S. net international investment position, the difference between U.S. residents’ foreign financial assets and liabilities, was –$26.14 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Assets totaled […]

ADP Unemployment Report

Late Report on by Angry Bear U.S. (un)employment. Just did not think of it. ADP says private sector sheds jobs as government shutdown halts data, October 1, 2025 Companies shed 32,000 jobs last month, according to data from payroll processor ADP, marking the biggest private sector decline in two-and-a-half years — and yet another warning […]

The advance-decline line and the (maybe) AI-fueled consumer spending bubble

– by New Deal democrat I rarely comment on the financial markets directly, since my focus in on the economy and how it impacts ordinary working and middle class Americans, especially in the near future. But in some cases, the financial markets themselves play an important role in that picture. And this is one of those […]

Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible

The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade: Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible, unless immigration flows are sustained Economic Policy Institute Reduction of net immigration flows would lead to much slower labor force and GDP growth If we assume that any changes in population levels do not change labor […]

Consumer spending has continued to increase

– by New Deal democrat I concluded my post yesterday with the conclusion that “while housing and trucking are plainly recessionary, the broader manufacturing orders outlook and consumer purchases of vehicles are not.”  Today I want to expand on that by taking a broader look at the main coincident measures of expansion vs. recession, and focus […]

Auto and truck purchases give conflicting signals on expansion vs. recession

 – by New Deal democrat The typical post-jobs report lull in the data is amplified this month (of course) by the fact that there was no jobs report this month! If there is a tiny silver lining beginning to appear, it is that the Administration is making noises about reinstating the health care subsidies that has […]

Car-Free Zurich?

Like many other places I have been in Europe? The cities of Switzerland also have excellent public transport. This might work there and be a model of other cities which have similar ways to get around without cars. “Initiative launched” A broad civil society committee has submitted 4,500 signatures in favor of the traffic reform […]