I think I will stick with Cato on this one. With Tr_mp playing with Tariffs on, half off, and then off game, the economy is in a greater flux. Miran is buying favors from Tr_mp with his voicing of his views. I believe many of us here know what the Fed does and so far […]
Teach them how to manufacture their ‘complex products’ — and then go back home. Would it work? Moneywise It is not a matter of whether it would work or not. The process and the technology to manufacture is already in the United States. This is in Lean Six Sigma, Just in Time, Total Quality Control, […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in addition to the jobs report. In the past several months, I have looked for a rebound from April and May’s “Liberation Day” aftermath of a cutback in spending. In July […]
Briefly: Exports have decreased. Slowest in nearly a year. Tariffs and a stronger Baht are listed as the causes. Thailand is hardly competition for the United States although they are contracted by American companies to make automotive and other industry components. Labor costs are less. AS well as other costs. Whether is it superior healthcare […]
– by New Deal democrat I’m on the road today, and won’t have time to update anything until tonight. So here is what to look for in initial and continuing jobless claims. Remember that the most important figure for forecasting purposes is the YoY% change. One year ago, initial claims came in at 221,000, the […]
Or you can talk about something else. I did this in early August also. As I said before, this used to be a weekly process and sometimes was very successful. As a subscriber. I am posting part of a Paul Krugman commentary from the past. It may interest you. You can always use your own […]
Answering the question as a part of: “Immigrants and the economy,” Economic Policy Institute. Just how many migrants and immigrants are living in the United States? There were 47.8 million migrants and immigrants who resided in the United States as of 2023 (see Figure A), which includes all foreign-born persons of any immigration status and those […]
A recurring theme in shut-down commentary is that Democrats cannot trust Trump and congressional republicans to keep any deal they make to fund the government. This seems like a valid concern. Some commentators cite this as one of the main reasons for Democrats to refuse to fund the government. But unless the Democrats have a […]
New home sales: despite the noisy sharp increase in August, the last pre-recession metrics are firmly negative – by New Deal democrat Have I mentioned before that new home sales, while perhaps the most leading of all the housing data, suffer from being very noisy and heavily revised? Yes, I think I have, just about […]
– by New Deal democrat In addition to my system of long and short leading indicators, and the weekly high frequency data, the third system I use to mark to market my views of the economy is what i call “the consumer nowcast.” Introduction I have various systems for tracking the economy — including high-frequency weekly […]