– by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of the official government sources, along with the regional Fed indexes, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes have become especially important. To recap, because of manufacturing’s diminished importance to the general economy, the services index has become significantly more important. For forecasting purposes, I assign a 75% weight […]

Such has been going on for decades. Some history on how much of this evolved historically on the planning side. Equipment efficiencies made planning easier and decreased costs. I started to work in industry late seventies and did so until 2020-something. Fresh out of the service in 71, three years to gain a math-driven BA […]

– by Steve Roth Originally posted at Wealth Economics Economists have widely ignored it, even while dubbing it the “preferred” measure of income. “The greatest trick capital-gainsincome ever managed was convincingthe world that it doesn’t exist.”—Carlos Mucha (inventor of the Platinum Coin) This post draws on a far lengthier and more detailed paper — including support for […]

The US has a long and sordid history of military extortion. The latest example is Trump’s saber-rattling movement of Navy battle groups off the coast of Venezuela and the extrajudicial assassinations the administration has been conducting off the Venezuelan coast in the name of drug interdiction.* Writing for the Boston Globe, Stephen Kinzer, a senior […]

 – by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]

 – by New Deal democrat The ISM manufacturing and services reports assume heightened importance this month in view of the continuing federal government shutdown. These two, along with the regional Feds’ manufacturing and services reports, are our best sketch of the economy until the more thorough federal reports resume (hopefully?) We already have the regional Feds’ […]

The embolden part is emphasis by Thom and not by myself. This does make sense in that employers are sharp enough to know they can cut wages so as to profit from what is paid to Labor through government aid to it. It becomes a trade off with government assistance trade off to company labor […]

Brief rundown on how manufacturing has evolved over the past 40 years. Moving from solely Labor to less Labor at a higher value. One worker at a CNC machine can do the manufacturing of multiple workers at separate stations performing one or two functions. Lower Labor cost, faster throughput, and a promise of less inventory […]

 – by New Deal democrat As I’ve reiterated several times this month, the two items of information I am paying the most attention to in the absence of official federal economic data are the Regional Fed Banks and the ISM, for both of their manufacturing and services reports. I should add that earlier this week […]

 – by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of almost all economic statistics from the federal government, one of the most important remaining sources is the Fed and its regional banks. All 5 of them that publish manufacturing and services reports have now done so. Which means that we have a decent placeholder proxy for […]