– by New Deal democrat In contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft landing scenario,” and that trend continued in this morning’s report for July. As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs. So to […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports which give us the pulse of the goods-producing economy. The ISM manufacturing report has been a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished importance since the turn of the Millennium and China’s accession to […]
The one thing which comes to mind (for me)? War, conflict, etc. is not a business transaction where one side pays for the others help. No quid pro quo. You are either in or you are not in when it comes to battling an aggressor style opponent. If the side you are on, and you […]
The right of Trump to impose tariffs at will and without Congressional approval is headed to the SCOTUS. What’s the odds that the tariffs will be overturned? Turns out there’s a market in tariff refunds if the SCOTUS rules against Trump: “In July the US government brought in $29.6 billion in tariff revenue compared to […]
~Two weeks away from another Consumer Price Index release which will be September 11 for August 2025. Some points . . . For July? Inflation was steady in July. This was only because of price declines for staples like groceries and gasoline. The declines helped to offset price increases for consumers. There are signs under the surface, […]
Weekly Indicators for August 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indictors” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most significant benefit of these high frequency indicators is to alert you of possible changes in trend that are unexpected. In the case of the past several weeks, that would be the […]
– by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded: “This was a very weak report, although not negative. If there were not distortions from the front-running of tariffs earlier this year, it would come very close to meriting a ‘recession watch.’ But by next month, the payback from this previous front-running should have largely abated. If […]
First-degree price discrimination is now . . . or “it’s not what the market will bear but what each individual will bear.” The one-handed economist Economists dislike monopolies because they reduce “surplus” — relative to a market with perfect competition — by restricting quantity supplied to increase prices. The figure below compares consumer surplus (CS) to producer(s) surplus (PS) […]
“The 2026 COLA is likely to be 2.7%, according to a recent projection by The Senior Citizens League. That’s a notch above this year’s COLA of 2.5%, which bumped up the average monthly benefit by roughly $50 for retired workers, and applies to more than 70 million retired senior citizens and disabled workers.” But does […]
– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims have been relatively subdued for the past month. Some have suggested that this is a byproduct of the large immigrant deportations which have recently taken place. Last week I noted that, “comparing the SA and NSA readings in the past several months suggests that [unresolved seasonality] has affected […]