The art of the deal
Until this year, China has been a major consumer of US soybeans. But Trump’s trade war with China has resulted in a shutdown of that major market for American farmers and billions of dollars in lost sales. Trump has promised federal dollars to farmers to compensate for the loss of the Chinese markets. So taxpayers are paying for the Trump trade war.
Meanwhile, Trump has announced a $20 billion currency swap line to prop up the failing Argentine currency. The prime minister is a right-wing politician.
And then there’s this:
“Chinese buyers booked at least 10 cargoes of Argentine soybeans after Buenos Aires scrapped grain export taxes, three traders said on Tuesday, dealing another setback to U.S. farmers already shut out of their top market and hit by low prices.”
So, US tax dollars will help subsidize the sale of Argentine soybeans to replace those formerly purchased from US farmers.
Is America great yet?
Trump subsidizes Chinese purchase of Argentine soybeans
China switching bean suppliers would, over time, matter little to U.S. bean output and exports, if it weren’t for a couple of things.
I won’t go into bean fungibility. Textbook stuff. It’s what happens outside the textbook that is a problem for U.S. farmers. Argentina, Brazil and the bean-freindly regions of Africa are expanding bean acreage. Next comes processing and export infrastructure. No longer just a matter of shuffling beans around.
Even shuffling beans around isn’t that easy for the Dakotas, where bean transport infrastructure is just about entirely pointed West, to Pacific ports. Odds are, most of this year’s Dakota beans will rot. We’ll soon learn what next season’s plantings will look like.
Macro:
Do tou have an article or piece I can read? Just asking and not challenging. Thank you for the comment.
Macro:
Did not hear back from you. A little more research on the near term issue:
China Expands Argentina Soybean Buying to 20 Cargoes, Traders Say Successful Farming, September 2025
It appears Argentina took the high road in selling their crops. This comes after the China tariffs on US crops, Meanwhile, “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a $20 billion swap line and other forms of assistance to help stabilize the Argentine peso, and said the U.S. remained “prepared to do what is necessary” to sustain the “important strides” taken by Milei.”
It appears that China does not need US Soybeans and farmers are angry. Having Tariffs can result in unsatisfactory outcomes when there is more than one producer. Tr_mp is not the most table person in the world. Neither is China an accommodating country. They are big enough to do as they please without the US. Many countries would rather deal with China rather than an unstable US president.