The recent rise in initial jobless claims: signal or noise? Yesterday initial jobless claims for the prior week were reported at 234,000, a six month high. That’s 32,000 above the recent one week low. The four week moving average rose to 223,250, more than 15,000 higher than its recent low: Is it cause for concern? […]
October personal income and spending strong In October personal income increased 0.5%, and personal spending increased 0.6%. These are both very strong increases. Further, as the graph below shows, real inflation adjusted income and spending both also rose: These are coincident indicators that form part of the quintessential nowcast. Real personal income adjusted by transfer […]
(Dan here….better a little late than not…) by Kenneth Thomas Amazon Wins!!! Well, what did you expect? With 238 entrants and 20 finalists, the Amazon HQ2 location tournament resulted in a resounding victory for Amazon: Billions of dollars in subsidies and binders full of detailed information on the contestants. Plus, we got a surprise twist […]
Q3 corporate profits increase Third quarter corporate profits were released as part of the first revision of GDP this morning. Since corporate profits deflated by unit labor costs are a long leading indicator, let’s take a look. Here is the raw corporate profits table released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis: Lines #3 and #11 […]
October new home sales plummet — but take it with a big grain of salt As you may have already read elsewhere, new home sales plunged -8.9% in October to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000. Here’s the accompanying graph: BUT … take this with a big grain of salt. The reason I rely […]
Janet Yellen “Not Tall Enough” So said Donald Trump on several occasions in connection with possibly appointing her as Fed Chair, according to an article in today’s Washington Post by Philip Rucker, John Dawsey, and Damian Paletta. This article, along with several others, mostly covered the 20 minute interview these three had with Trump in […]
Trump More Seriously Kowtows To MBS We have already seen the spectacle of Trump simply dismissing the reported CIA conclusion that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) ordered the gruesome murder and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (“Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t”) He has put forward silly excuses for this: low oil prices! […]
CSX connects most major U.S. cities east of the Mississippi River. Since 2017, the railroad has laid off 6,000 employees, cut back on capital spending, and slashed the number of trains it runs and discontinued hundreds of the routes it serves. Together CSX and Union Pacific serve major U.S. cities west of the Mississippi River […]
by Joseph Joyce U.S. Interest Rates and Global Banking in Emerging Market Economies The spillover effects of changes in U.S. interest rates are widely recognized (see here and here). An increase in rates, for example, raises the cost of dollar-denominated financing outside the U.S., which has grown in recent years, while an appreciation of the dollar makes such […]
; Via Bill McBride at Calculated Risk: Climate Change Report This is a critical threat and should be a nonpartisan issue. Here is the Fourth National Climate Assessment. An excerpt on the economic impact: In the absence of significant global mitigation action and regional adaptation efforts, rising temperatures, sea level rise, and changes in extreme events […]