Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What News Was in My In-Box

The usual mix of articles on the internet. The important ones are healthcare and legal issues. The usual legal issues going on with trump who is flinging as much mud against the wall to confuse the issue of his attack on the US. Eventually, this will come to an end. Hopefully, there is an end […]

Strong September Industrial Production

September industrial production comes in very strong  – by New Deal democrat September’s industrial production report puts the final nail in the coffin in the notion that the US is already in recession. I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators because, more than any other single metric, it coincides with the peaks and […]

The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered

The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered, as real wages decline, real aggregate payrolls near stall, plus record mortgage payments  – by New Deal democrat No economic news today. So, now that we have the September inflation read, let’s take a look at a couple of important consumer indicators: real average wages, and real aggregate […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14

Weekly Indicators for October 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Just about everything looks awful. And one bright spot, consumer spending as measured by Redbook, just got dimmer. Needless to say, if consumer spending rolls over, that’s pretty much the ball game.. You […]

Iranian Demonstrations Spread to Oil Workers

Iranian Demonstrations Spread to Oil Workers by Barkey Rosser  The death of a Kuidish-Iranian woman not wearing a hijab to cover her hair has led to weeks of demonstrations led by mostly young women especially in the Kurdish parts of Iran.  However, they have gained the support of young men as well, despite a severe […]

GM Strikes $69M Deal to Source Nickel and Cobalt for Car batteries

“GM Strikes $69M Deal to Source Nickel and Cobalt from Australia,” DBusiness Magazine, Tim Keenan Like the rest of the big three and other auto manufacturers, GM is preparing to go electric for cars and abandon oil. GM Detroit secured a new source of cost-competitive nickel and cobalt in Australia for its Ultium battery cells. […]

September real retail sales lay another egg

September real retail sales lay another egg  – by New Deal democrat One of my favorite indicators, retail sales, was reported for September this morning, and it came in unchanged. Which means that after factoring in +0.4% inflation in September, real retail sales were down -0.4%. Which is not good, because real retail sales have […]

A Stale Beeveridge Debate

It’s that time again*: we have reached the stage in the business cycle when normally sensible economists are alarmed that the Beveridge curve has shifted up. Paul Krugman is (as usual) on the side of relative reason, but he miss-used the curve in this figure Here he uses the data *and* the assumption that there […]