Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

California waits as Other states submit Colorado River plan

California holds out as Arizona, other states submit Colorado River plan, ktar.com, KTAR FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) — Six Western states that rely on water from the Colorado River have agreed on a model to dramatically cut water use in the basin, months after the federal government called for action and an initial deadline passed. With […]

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather

House price indexes for November: up like a rocket, down like a feather  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated many times in the past 10 years, in housing prices follow sales with a lag. Housing permits peaked at the beginning of 2022, and starts followed several months later.  This morning the FHFA and […]

From Deficit to Debt

In the real world, if someone spends more money than they make, they run a deficit. Income – Spending = Deficit. Accumulatively, deficits become debt. In order to avoid the accumulation of debt; they need to either reduce spending, increase income, or both; a lessening of income would require a reduction in spending, an increase […]

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report

What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report  – by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes that includes house prices, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report, and of course on Friday nonfarm payrolls. Speaking of which, 3 […]

No More Noma

No More Noma Eating is a necessity and can be a great pleasure.  It also has a symbolic dimension in every culture.  In the long history of European civilization, going back at least to the Romans, it has been a form of status distinction, allowing the elites at the top to display their separation from […]

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for January 23 – 27

Weekly Indicators for January 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat “Slowly I turn. Step by step . . .” That old Vaudeville bit comes to mind in watching the coincident indicators creep towards a recessionary downturn on a weekly basis. Also, some of the long leading indicators are also creeping […]

Rail Workers Are Fighting On After Biden Blocked a National Strike

Politicians may have headed off their strike, but rail workers haven’t stopped organizing for paid sick leave, safe staffing, and time off. AFL-CIO Transportation Trades Department: “The American people should know that while this round of collective bargaining is over, the underlying issues facing the workforce and rail customers remain,” As take from: “Here’s How […]

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending

Good news and bad news on personal income and spending  – by New Deal democrat December personal income and spending had some material for both optimists and pessimists. Let’s look at the good news first, mainly having to do with inflation. Both the total and core personal consumption deflator continued their overall deceleration in December, […]

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative  – by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than most quarters in the past several years, as shown below: Although not shown (due to the huge […]