March 27: TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) – The United States said on Wednesday it had reached an agreement with three Central American countries to carry out joint police operations in the region, as the Trump administration seeks to stem the flow of migrants across its southern border. The governments of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and the United […]
Manufacturing slowdown apparent, but no contraction With yesterday’s ISM report for manufacturing in March, let’s take an updated look at this sector, with a particular emphasis on what to look for in this Friday’s jobs report. The ISM manufacturing index, and its more leading new orders sub-index, both continued positive in March, with the former […]
Along with fourth quarter GDP, corporate profits for the the fourth quarter was also reported. Profits growth was either quite strong or very weak depending on how you looked at them. On a year over year basis, after tax profits growth was 11% and appeared to be accelerating. However, on a quarter to quarter basis […]
Real personal income and spending sag Along with jobs and wages, household and personal income and spending are my main focus on how average Americans are doing in the economy. We’ll get the next jobs report a week from now, but today we got – almost updated to the present – January personal income and […]
The last long leading indicator, corporate profits, declined in Q4 2018 Three months after the quarter ended, corporate profits for Q4 of 2018 were reported this morning, and they were down slightly (-0.1%). Here’s the quote from the BEA: Corporate profits deflated by unit labor costs are a long leading indicator. Since these costs were […]
Here’s a model that didn’t pan out in 2018 A little over a year ago, I proposed A simple model of interest rates and the jobs market. As I explained at the time, “during the past such era of [low interest rates in] 1930-1955 several recessions including the very bad 1938 recession occurred without a yield […]
by Joseph Joyce Capital Flows in a World of Low Interest Rates Interest rates in advanced economies continue to persist at historically low levels. This trend is due not only to the response of central banks to slow growth, but also fundamental factors. If these interest rates continue close to their current levels, what are […]
by New Deal democrat February housing data indicates slump not over UPDATED Housing data, in the form of February permits and starts, finally caught up after the government shutdown. Two sources of house price data were also released this morning. The bottom line is that, depending on how you measure, housing construction is likely either […]
The coming slowdown in employment Last summer I wrote a piece entitled “What the compressed yield curve means for employment.” I re-read it over the weekend, and in light of what has been going on in the bond market, I thought it was worth an update. Let me pretty much re-quote the entire piece: ———— […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As you can imagine, the big news was about the fact that almost every single yield curve there is – except the one I report on every week in that post – inverted […]