-by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. I feel like a broken record . . . With pedal-to-the-metal fiscal and monetary stimulus, plus the opening up of pent-up demand with a large pool of vaccinated people, the economy is on […]
Bellwether Bullard versus Sirenic Summers So this is about the now getting to be passe topic of what will happen to inflation this year, with Larry Summers having gone out of his way to make a lot of noise in criticizing the expansionary fiscal policy partly passed but partly still under consideration in Congress as […]
A housing market quandary: two completely contradictory reports on renting vs. ownership There are three potential areas of concern for the economy in the next 12 to 24 months that I see: 1. Inflation – this looks temporary to me. Demand side effects will probably fade by the end of summer, and supply side bottlenecks […]
Why March’s big jump in real retail sales augurs well for big employment gains through summer Yesterday I wrote that the steep decline in new jobless claims in the past 4 weeks likely presages another big monthly employment gain, on the order of 1 million or more jobs. Another very big positive for the next […]
By Steve Roth (originally published at Evonomics)t https://evonomics.com/how-redistribution-makes-america-richer/ You hear a lot about bottom-up and middle-out economics these days, as antidotes to a half-century of “trickle-down” theorizing and rhetoric. You’re even hearing it, prominently, from Joe Biden: They’re compelling ideas: put more wealth and income in the hands of millions, or hundreds of millions, and you’ll […]
March housing permits and starts – don’t get too excited Don’t get too excited about this morning’s big jump in housing starts for March. In the first place, it wasn’t confirmed in either total or single-family permits, which both remain down from December and January, and the latter of which is the least of all […]
When the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were first approved, it was clear that they were highly effective at preventing covid and that they would be in short supply for months. The clinical trial data also suggested that, at least in the short-run, one dose of the vaccines would provide almost as much protection against covid […]
Industrial production for March disappoints – but only on the surface As an initial note, retail sales for March blew out to the upside, but as expected due to cosnumers’ spending their latest pandemic stimulus checks. People visit sites like stimuluschecker.org to check the status of their stimulus payment or verify their eligibility. This does […]
March consumer prices, retail sales, industrial production, & new home construction; February’s business inventories RJS at MarketWatch 666 Seasonally adjusted retail sales increased by 9.8% in March, the second largest jump on record, after retail sales for January and February were both revised higher…the Advance Retail Sales Report for March (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our […]
Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely As I have said for the past few weeks, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I have been expecting a […]