Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Developing the World’s Tallest Timber Tower Again

Milwaukee is developing the world’s tallest timber tower . . . again | CNN Commenter Bob Michaelson recently posted on Joel Eissenberg’s post Getting High on Wood . . . What Bob was pointing to in his comment was Milwaukee, WI build of another Timber Tower skyscraper building type made of wood. Presently, a mass […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators August 26-30 2024 . . . Normalization?

 – by New Deal democrat My detailed “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were two noteworthy events this past week. First, the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread briefly normalized during the week, on Wednesday, and ended the week only inverted by 1 basis point (.01%). Second, almost *all* of the coincident indicators are […]

The truth about immigration

The big lie about immigration, promoted by the GOP and its right-wing propaganda outlets, is that under Biden the US has had “open borders.” LOL! Nowhere close. And the US hasn’t had open borders at least since the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 that prohibited all immigration of Chinese laborers for ten years. The law […]

Inflation Data Gives a ‘Bright Green Light’ for a Fed Rate Cut

We have been playing brinksmanship the last 30 days as to when it is a good time to reduce the Fed Rate taking your foot off the bake so to speak. If you read New Deal democrat’s latest report . . . “The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report […]

July personal income and spending: an excellent report, with only one fly in the ointment

 – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s becuase it tells us so much about the state of the consumer economy. It is the raw material for several important coincident indicators that the NBER looks at, as well as several […]

Getting high on wood

Wood is a form of natural carbon sequestration. Yesterday, I posted about how wood is making a comeback as a building material. I’ve since found this article announcing that the world’s largest building built (partly) of wood has been greenlit. “Western Australia is set to become home to the world’s tallest timber building, a “revolutionary” […]

Diagnostic Expectations, Anchoring, and Actual Expectations

This is actually related to my day job. For some decades I have been puzzled by two of Kahneman and Tversky’s discoveries (reported very well in this excellent book). First, there is the excessive reliance on diagnostic characteristics (called diagnostic expectations by economists). A classic example is the room with 90 lawyers and 10 engineers. […]

Jobless claims: almost all good

 – by New Deal democrat The news about initial and continuing jobless claims was almost all good this week. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 231,000, and the four-week moving average declined -4,750 to 231,500, the lowest since early June. Continuing claims increased by 13,000 to 1.868 million: As usual, more important for forecasting purposes are […]

Trump and the Economy

As usual Trump is bleating about the upcoming election and how he will be cheated through fraudulent actions if he loses. Another point being made in this commentary is the pricing of goods which went up 14% while corporate profits when up five times as much. A Kroger Director admits such for some food products. […]

Catching Up on Climate Risk Research

Two excellent short and very readable mini articles (to be redundant). Both pieces are pointing to a direction the Fed should take in the next year or sooner with regard to Climate Change. It is doubtful they will do so until catastrophe hits. What is a few $billion more in spending, right??? This aspect of […]