Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

OIl, Helium, Semicondutors, Middle East . . .

Middle East Issues as Trump does his best to make issue complex with his lack of knowledge . . . Impact to Asia of the Middle East Oil Shortage – Angry Bear On higher-end manufacturing and with helium, being a gas byproduct used for semiconductors, the stress levels increase. Qatar, which normally produces nearly one third ​of […]

Maybe Lower Oil Costs?

Having greater oil reserves gives the UAE leverage to strike out on its own. The UAE nation has not been supplying more oil due to imposed restrictions by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who act as one exporting group. Or simply stating there is more capacity than demand. And OPEC wishes to keep oil […]

Updating the long leading indicators: money and credit, plus overall review

– by New Deal democrat In the past week, I have been updating my suite of long leading indicators. First I looked at “real” consumer-focused indicators. Then I looked at housing, an important interface between consumers and producers, as well as corporate profits. Next I updated interest rate indicators. I this final installment I will […]

More on Oil

Brief review on the Oil Situation created by Trump and the US. Another week of consequential developments, including a potential new chair at the Fed and more war delivering higher prices. “Who’d a Thunk It? We’re Bogged Down In a Middle-East War,” Jared Berstein substack It has long been clear to me that Trump views […]

Teaching Iran a Lesson

I subscribe to a Dean Baker site. Typically, he is on the economic side of information. This commentary has a little bit of both economics and politics. What to do with Iran when the president is Trump. The rest of the world teeters economically for every action Trump takes. “Trump’s Ignorance Could Kill Millions” Patreon […]

Europe, Ukraine, and Iran; and Trump’s impaired emotional/cognitive relationship to negative consequences

This is a speculative post.  I don’t have any expertise in foreign policy.  I just want to clarify my own thinking, and posting is a way to force myself to do this.  So caveat lector, and let’s see what you all have to add. European leaders seem increasingly willing to criticize Trump.  Here is Bloomberg: […]

Fertility Rates

How does deportation policy impact the United States economy. It was predicted in and around 2006, decreasing birth rates in the United States would have an economic impact. Consider for a moment, Trumps deportation and limiting immigrants to the United States will only aggravate the need for Labor input. Fewer birth and an anti-immigrant policy […]

“the people with the most money and the most influence pushed for it”

A bit of Kareem on a Sunday morning. “Tax Day Shows the Gap” Kareem Takes on the News Summary by Kareem: On Tax Day 2026, three prominent voices—Nobel laureate economist Joseph E. Stiglitz, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and EU Tax Observatory founding director Gabriel Zucman—argue in The Guardian that America’s tax system systematically […]

SCOTUS Rejected Tariffs on U.S. Products and the US has to Refund Them

Additional nontechnical information on tariffs in the United States EconoFact: Tariff Payback Tariff Payback This week, the Trump administration began accepting requests for refunds of more than $166 billion in tariff payments following the Supreme Court’s February ruling: “the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.” Who Benefits: But while the refunds […]