Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Stable genius and dealmaker

In his low-energy April Fools Day speech last night, Trump showed he hasn’t a clue how the world supply chains work: “In Wednesday night’s address to the nation, President Trump declared, “We’re now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet, we are there to help.” “We don’t have to be there — we don’t […]

February JOLTS report confirms low hire, low fire, low quit economy

 – by New Deal democrat I normally don’t pay too much attention to the JOLTS report, and I won’t this month, either. It does break down the labor market further than the jobs report, and it does have several slightly leading components, so let’s at least take a brief look. Below are job openings (blue), […]

FHFA and Case Shiller repeat sales indexes continue to show further disinflation

– by New Deal democrat The two national repeat home sales indexes, from the FHFA and Case-Shiller, were reported this morning and both continued to confirm the gradual abatement in shelter inflation. The Case-Shiller National index (blue in the graphs below) up 0.2% for the three month period ending in January, while the FHFA index […]

Is There a Will to Change?

Is There a Will to Change? J.P. McJefferson Thoughts Exposing the underpinnings of a broken government. In towns and neighborhoods across the country, cooperation is not an abstract ideal—it is a daily reality. Neighbors help each other after storms and natural disasters. Local businesses collaborate to advance common goals. Communities come together in moments of […]

Population Outlook 2026 to 2056 which Includes Immigration

Keep in mind, as the Baby Boomer population decreases there will be a population shrinkage. Indeed, it is shrinking as I write this short introduction. Replacement rate is at ~1.6 today. Without immigration, the economy could be short of labor as well as other issues. In spite of what Trump believes immigration is an important […]

Oil shocks and real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls

 – by New Deal democrat As readers know well, one of my favorite “real life” indicators is real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls, which measures how much in wages average American workers have to spend each month. When it is growing, economic expansions almost always continue; when it declines by any significant amount, recessions almost always ensue […]

Trolling America . . .

Saying insulting or odious things both as attention-seeking behavior and as a way of showcasing their supposedly transgressive political views. I would add to this, it being a matter of control over the meeting and the participants. It unprepared for such trolling, you are left attempting to answer which is typically off topic. The direction […]

So how are those Trump tariffs working out?

The right-wing prophecies: “Leading Trump sycophant Sean Hannity claimed tariffs would generate “a new golden age of American wealth and exceptionalism.” “Fox Business’ Elizabeth MacDonald stated Trump was trying to “reignite a manufacturing golden age.” “Newsmax host Carl Higbie declared, “American jobs being created because we want to make things more fair.” Reality, as we […]

Tax season

The quote “Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society” (is attributed to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. As we enter the 2026 IRS filing season, you may be treated to the libertarian* propaganda that taxes are just government stealing. In a representative democracy such as ours, the majority has […]