Oil Shorts – Insider Trading
Sources are CNBC, Financial Times, BBC, Reuters
Paul Krugmam (subscriber) gives a lengthy review of what took place at his substack Paul Krugman. I am not going to put his dialogue up. However, he says; “Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense.” I can not imagine how they are pulling this off. Isn’t this supposed to be illegal?
“At this point it’s almost routine: Almost every time Donald Trump makes a major announcement about the Iran War, that announcement is preceded — sometimes by only a few minutes — by huge and hugely profitable bets in the oil market. The influential Kobeissi Letter documents the latest example.
Common Dreams also has an article covering potential Insider Trading.
‘Epic Insider Trading’: Nearly $1 Billion in Crude Oil Shorts Taken Just Before Report of US-Iran Peace Deal, Common Dreams
Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), (one-time Trump cheerleader who’s become one of his leading critics) suggests Trump’s erratic approach to negotiating an end to the war was just a tool used by him and his allies to profit. AB: I guess you can call his approach erratic. I believe it is a purposeful mistake, He knows what he is doing.
The Rest of the article. Greene:
“When is everyone going to start realizing that the on-again, off-again war/peace rhetoric is really just insider trading? And sprinkle in some murder,” Greene wrote on social media. “Only a select few in the top tax bracket are benefiting from this, and the majority of you ain’t in it.”
Democrats pushing the SEC
Democrats in Congress have urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate what Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) suggested could be “mind-blowing corruption” by the White House, not only related to Trump’s wars, but also to his tariff regime, which has caused similar market chaos that bettors have been able to capitalize on with fortuitously timed wagers.
But critics have described profiting from the machinations of a war that has killed more than 1,700 civilians as particularly grotesque.
“This has to stop,” said Fox News commentator Jessica Tarlov. “Lives on the line so they can insider trade!”
The Trump administration has already been deluged with accusations that its members are using insider information to take advantage of financial markets and prediction market apps.
Last month, an active-duty US special forces soldier was indicted by the Department of Justice after he made about $400,000 betting on Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power, a bet he allegedly placed using classified information about an operation he himself was involved with.
More bettors collected around $1 million in profits from bets on the specific timing of Trump’s war with Iran in late February. The Financial Times also reported a surge of more than $580 million in oil futures trading right before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iran’s energy facilities in March.
Of course, Wednesday’s bet theoretically could have been made without the aid of insider information.
The new peace framework is the latest in what has seemed to be an endless pattern over the past several weeks in which US officials tell media outlets that a peace agreement is on the horizon, causing oil prices to dip, only for it to collapse later in the week, often with Trump issuing hostile threats or making new demands.
It has become such a familiar story that some have speculated that the announcement of productive ceasefire talks is deliberately choreographed to calm oil markets and bring down prices, which have become a growing problem for Trump among voters.
But as The Economic Times explained, the bet placed Wednesday morning likely “is not a routine hedge” or “a portfolio rebalancing move.”
“At that hour, in that size,” it said, “a crude oil short of that magnitude is a deliberate, high-conviction directional bet.”
AB: This is a couple (few) of times now of this type of occurrence. When does the law step in?