– by New Deal democrat Today I want to step back from the daily data and give you my Big Picture overview of the economy, particularly because Friday’s inflation report has materially changed an important component. To begin with, as I have been saying off and on for months, the economy has been essentially flat, and […]

EconoFact Weekend Reading: Guns vs. Butter Programs The phrase “Guns vs. Butter” is used to illustrate the choice a government must make between spending on the military and spending on social programs. President Trump’s recently released 2027 budget proposal tilts towards guns and away from butter. It calls for a 44 percent increase in defense spending, boosting it to $1.5 trillion, while reducing non-defense spending by 10%. […]

 – by New Deal democrat While inflation and interest rates took a whack at some of the data, most of the financial-related series (like the yield curve in the bond market and credit conditions) remain very positive. And consumer spending, likely by the uppermost income groups, actually posted one of its very best YoY comparisons in […]

– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims, along with stock market prices and upscale consumer spending (and recently, manufacturing orders) are one of the few important metrics holding up the economy. And the short summary of this morning’s data is: the new regime of very low claims continued. Initial claims did rise 16,000 to a still […]

A rewrite of a much shorter story about state and local funding and what Trump’s Beautiful Bill (or piece of garbage) does to states. Much of Trump’s cuts are meant to fund a new tax break for the upper 10% and 1% in income. Over ten years, The Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) will cut taxes for the […]

“Zetland’s Rule for Subsidies” The one-handed economist As you know, nothing exists until an academic puts their name on it. /s Thus, I reveal my creation — the ZRS! The government should only provide subsidies that anyone can access if they meet the eligibility criteria. Examples: The ZRS thus excludes subsidies to race, gender, religion, […]

Economic Information from Oil Price.com concerning reserves and pricing based on global interests and actions. In a bit of a flux right now. Not much stability and a lot of rent taking by the oil and gasoline industry. Some detail. More at the Oil Price site. “Oil Ignores Escalation, Logs Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2025” […]

 – by New Deal democrat As anticipated, the March CPI packed a wallop, up 0.9% for the month and causing the YoY% gain to increase to 3.3%, while core CPI was a tame 0.2% with a YoY% gain of 2.6%. Because of the impact of that big number, I am departing from my usual format to […]

Disrupting the Global Economy and Iran is Doing Quite Well Aluminum Disruptions Due to Bombing, Construction Physics The world’s largest aluminum smelter in Bahrain was hit by an Iranian drone, bringing production offline. [Bloomberg] Other aluminum smelters in the area have cut production due to inability to ship through the Strait. This, in turn, has […]

“Recessionary signals in February personal income and spending, but some bright spots as well”  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also […]