Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Industrial production increases again in February, but ex-AI related utilities has made little progress since last July

 – by New Deal democrat Probably my biggest theme right now is that most of the economy is either recessionary or at least on the cusp of recessionary. But this has been counterbalanced by AI data center- related spending, and the stock market boom and wealth effect it gave rise to.  Last month I highlighted how […]

Trump’s war and global de-dollarization

A major bulwark protecting the US economy has been that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Now, Trump’s “excursion” (don’t say “war”) is looking to change that. “A senior Iranian official has told CNN that Tehran is considering allowing a limited number of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — but only if […]

“Gap between the boom Trump predicted and the volatile results He Produced”

If you are reading this, New Deal democrat predicted 2025 would be a wash in labor growth and the economy. No Boom to be experienced in any case for 2025. And 2026 may not be so great either. “Trump’s ‘roaring economy’ meets a rough start to 2026 with job losses, rising gas prices and uncertainty.” […]

“growing productivity renders the expenditure of labour time increasingly unnecessary”

Tom is discussing the battle between Labour and Machinery. As manual machinery was replaced by NC and then CNC, Labor did not reap anything more for it. Instead, Labour was displaced. Keep one thing in mind. Direct Labor in manufacturing is the smallest component in the cost of manufacturing. The productivity gains Tom speaks to, […]

January personal income and spending: treading water, leading metrics sinking

 – by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main event, a couple of quick comments on the other data released so far this morning:  1. Real GDP as revised only grew at 0.7% annualized in the 4th Quarter of last year. This is often, but by no means always, recessionary. And since there was […]

“divergence between higher-wealth, higher income consumers and their lower-wealth, lower-income counterparts”

Preliminary results from the February 2026 survey University of Michigan economics’ report does not see a dynamic economy for the overall nation. It portends gains for the upper income populace and not so much in store for the lower income brackets. Largest stockholders can look forward to a good year. Those further down, a not-so-great […]

“signs of both imminent recession and ‘green shoots’”

“Housing permits, starts, and construction: signs of both imminent recession and ‘green shoots’”  – by New Deal democrat This morning’s important data on housing construction contained two apparently contradictory trends: on the one hand, it continues to be – even more intensely – consistent with an imminent or ongoing recesssion. On the other hand, it suggests […]

What Has the World Received in Return for U.S. Efforts?

Summing it up as to what our current president is doing to make the United States and the rest of the world safer and economically better. Nothing, just worse, “Double Standard at the Top, When One Tremor Ripples Across the Globe, & The Quiet Crisis in America’s Living Rooms,” Kareem Takes on the News Summary:  […]