Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

“No further progress is likely in the near term towards the Fed’s 2.0% Target”

February CPI: a likely last hurrah for relatively tame consumer price increases  – by New Deal democrat Much like last month, February benefited from shelter and gas prices – for a change – pulling in the same, disinflating, direction. Needless to say, I do not expect that to be the case for March! But in the […]

The “gold standard” QCEW for last Q3 strongly suggests no job growth whatsoever in 2025

– by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is “the gold standard of US employment measures. It is an actual census of 95%+ of all employers, who must report new employees for purposes like unemployment and disability benefits. Because of this, it is used for the final revisions, a/k/a bench-marks, for monthly […]

Flaw & Fixes

Our Republic is in great peril.  The democracy so proudly brought forth hangs in the balance. The ever-so critical upcoming midterms won’t be Democrats vs. Republicans; they will be we the people vs. them, democracy vs. autocracy and fascism.  Will be even more so if we make it to the 2028 elections (a huge if).  […]

Versatility of conviction in Iran

The justifications for the war on Iran were kind of a dog’s breakfast. Among those mentioned were regime change and unconditional surrender, which promised a long commitment and boots on the ground. Looks like the stock market and oil prices got through to Cadet Bone Spurs. “What this all comes down to is that the […]

USA Wages and Inflation

USA Facts asks the question, “Are wages keeping up with inflation?” It answers the quest and then provides the data to support its contention. Saying “Yes. From January 2025 to January 2026, wages grew 1.9 percentage points faster than inflation.” When you are listening to the news or reading an article in one of the […]

“new research on foreigners bearing the tariff burden”

Commentary by Erica York at the Tax Foundation on the pass-through impact of tariffs on pricing in the United States. The other possibility is companies may they eat it for a short period of time and maybe pass it through later in the time-table. The idea being the United States may later drop the tariff […]

How $4/gallon gas could take the economy from a nearly complete stall into outright recession

– by New Deal democrat So, first some bad news: my tech issue has resurfaced, so only links to graphs rather than graphs themselves, hopefully just for a day or two. Basically, unless I keep a bar up open to the blog page, Google and Apple sever their “handshake,” and I have to start from […]

A Measure of Tax Decreases for the Upper 10% of Households

I pulled this bullet point information from Josh Bivens piece on the Economic Policy Institute: “The Trump administration’s macroeconomic agenda harms affordability and raises inequality,” Economic Policy Institute. Graph showing the difference in return over 40 years versus Trump’s tax break for the wealthy in one year. It is the same return. It is interesting […]

Trade Deficits, Tariffs, and Rare Earths

Having read the part of processing rare earths in China when the United States has a sufficent supply of rare earths to sustain US Processing. It may make sense to process rare earths in the US. The possesses significant rare earth element (REE) deposits estimated to be > than 3.6 million tons. There are major […]