Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for February 23 – 27

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Last week commodity prices, and in particular oil, rose sharply again – probably due to what has been unfolding in the Middle East. And the US$ is still losing value. Meanwhile withholding tax payments have faltered somewhat again. Good times! As usual, clicking […]

Trump Administration’s Macro-Economic Agenda

This is a partial of a much larger piece concerning the administrations Macro-Economic agenda and impact. It gives a sound take on what is occurring and what will occur if Pres. Trump continues toying with the US economy with on and off tariffs on the economy, etc. The one OBBB’s (defined at the end of […]

DEATH OF TRUTH and SOCIAL SECURITY (3)

Part Three of a commentary (broken into parts) about Social Security. Dale Coberly discusses with AI (Artificial Intelligence) Social Security. The topic about Social Security? How it can be saved as it is today without major cuts to it. This is really hard to discuss with people. Many believe it would take a vast amount […]

Claiming a Golden Age

“Rhetoric Is Not Reform: The Good Life Can Not Be an Applause Line,” Roosevelt Institute In his State of the Union address, President Trump claimed a “Golden Age of America,” insisting the economy is “roaring like never before” and pointing to market highs and headline indicators as proof. But people don’t live inside a speech. […]

Construction spending mainly flat nominally and declining in real terms, except for AI data center-related Boom

– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main object of this post, there was a little kerfluffle in the financial markets this morning about a “hot” producer price index number. Specifically, PPI for final demand increased 0.5% in January. Commodity prices also increased 0.3%. The YoY% changes were 2.8%, although raw commodity […]

Immigrants are Using Less Welfare than US Citizens

In that respect, the title is correct. Immigrants whether legal or not do not use more welfare than U.S. citizens. That they do use welfare benefits can be an issue to many. However, I believe we should look more at the economic impact immigrants have on the economy whether they are legal or not. As […]

Annoyed with the Actions of a Sovereign Country?

then just kidnap their leader . . . Economist David Zetland presenting a way to solve economic and political problematic issues . . . kidnap the country’s president. David Zetland The one-handed economist Plot: Twist: Kidnapping a president So Trump and his fellow-geniuses appear to think they’ve “hacked” the dilemma of diplomacy: If you’re annoyed […]

More clarity in jobless claims: both post-pandemic seasonality and regime change at work

 – by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]

Blocking Flu Shots

Started at the end rather than the beginning . . . Blocking Flu shots does not make much sense as Flu Shots are nothing new. The big issue is whether they chose the right vaccine for what will happen each year. “The Journal notes Moderna was one of nine companies to have received a surprise […]

Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted

 – by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]