Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Housing short term indicators say “recession;” longer term indicators suggest “recovery” is close

 – by New Deal democrat When I updated this information in September, I wrote that “a puzzling relationship this year has been that the housing data has been classically recessionary for a number of months, and yet the economy has not rolled over.” I concluded that update by noting that while the report was “very much […]

US Healthcare? Paying More for Less

Beating a constant drum here of the Quality and Expense for United Staes healthcare. This short piece by CEPR’s John Schmitt offers excellent and simple graphs presenting the detail of healthcare in the United States versus other countries. Simplistic graphs and numbers for the United States and measured along with other countries. The issue is […]

Short and medium term inflation, interest rates, and the overstretched consumer

The deluge of data resumes tomorrow with housing permits and starts, industrial production, and durable goods orders. In the meantime, let me make a few “big picture” observations of the economy, and in particular, the short and longer term trends in inflation and interest rates. – by New Deal democrat 1. Short term inflation A very […]

Financing Government Debt

The Cost of Financing U.S. Government Debt – By Daniel Bergstresser Econofact The Issue: The share of government spending devoted to paying interest on the United States’ government debt has risen sharply since 2020 and already exceeds what the government spends on defense. The outlook for the burden of the debt over the next decade has […]

Why the US failed in Cuba

This linked article is over 30 years old, but Cuba still has a socialist authoritarian government. After the collapse of the USSR, its primary benefactor. After the death of Fidel Castro and the retirement of Raul Castro. Decades of US boycotts and saber-rattling have failed to elicit regime change. That’s because the US never trusted […]

Real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls remain relentlessly positive

 – by New Deal democrat Today is Presidents’ Day, so there are no official economic data releases; and there will be no significant releases tomorrow either, before a torrent of both timely and delayed data from Wednesday through Friday, including GDP for Q4. In the meantime, because of the January updates for employment and inflation last […]

The Uncertainty of the Impact of Tariffs

Angry Bear is very fortunate to have guest posts by V.P. Erica York of the Tax Foundation. The timing of this particular commentary gives Angry readers some insight as to the impact and possible outcome of President Trump’s tariffs. The Court may have some input to add to the legitimacy of tariffs. Read on . […]

Costs of Healthcare and Healthcare Inurance

With the Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits expiring January 1st, 2026, many Americans enrolled in ACA exchange plans were facing increasing significant premium payments. CBO (Congressional Budget Office) did project a permanent extension of the enhanced tax credits would result in increases in the number of people with health insurance by 3.8 million in 2035. […]

Annals of euphemism

How many euphemisms are there for TACO? “Carve-out.” “Step-backs.” “Exclusions.” “Price relief.” “Rollback.” How about “advancing to the rear?” Trump’s tariffs are turning out to be fairy tales told to children. Trump wrote that his tariffs are unleashing “an American economic miracle, and we are quickly building the greatest economy in the history of the […]

Disinflating shelter prices and deflating gas prices work wonders for January CPI

No, it is not a mistake by putting the title at the head of this post (above) and a second time below. I did not want the AB readers to think I was writing this commentary about January CPI results. This report belongs solely to New Deal democrat. Oh, I did write or report on […]