Looking for the $18 Trillion
Angry Bear Readers . . . once or twice a week, we are the recipients of commentary written by guest writer Erica York at The Tax Foundation. This is not a copy from a site that is simply pasted on Angry Bear. These are sent to the Angry Bear address. I then post them for Ms. Erica York, similar to what I do for other posters who may find such to be difficult. I am (we at Angry Bear are) very pleased to be the recipient of such commentary. I hope readers will take the time to read her words.
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Looking for Trump’s $18 trillion
– by Erica York
The Tax Foundation
This week marks the one-year anniversary of “Liberation Day” and President Trump’s global tariff scheme. Earlier this year, President Trump defended his tariff strategy by touting that he has “secured commitments for more than $18 trillion, a number that is unfathomable to many.” The White House investment tracker claims a smaller $10.5 trillion in total “US and foreign investments.”
In a $30 trillion economy where total private investment runs around $5 trillion a year, an investment surge of $10 trillion to $18 trillion is not realistic.
Scale alone is reason for skepticism of the president’s claims, but so too is direction. Some sectors of the economy may expand due to protection, but that expansion comes at the expense of other sectors and overall productivity. Tariffs thus reduce economic output on net, and so they should shrink investment and the capital stock, not grow it.
Even giving the White House every benefit of the doubt, if investment had increased by trillions, it should be noticeable in broad macroeconomic statistics.
Start with total private nonresidential fixed investment, which excludes residential investment like owner-occupied homes and rental apartments, and focuses on business structures, equipment, and intellectual property products like software and R&D.
In 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports that the United States saw $4.25 trillion in investment across those categories, up from $4.02 trillion in 2024 nominally, for an increase of $228 billion or 5.6 percent. Comparing annual rates in Q4 2024 ($4.04 trillion) to Q4 2025 ($4.36 trillion) yields a similar result, for a $319 billion increase or 7.9 percent nominally. In real terms, private fixed nonresidential investment was up about 4 percent year over year and 5.5 percent when comparing the fourth quarter annual rates.
But President Trump’s claims are usually about a specific subcategory of investment: foreign direct investment into the United States.
The BEA reports that foreign direct investment into the United States totaled $288.4 billion in 2025, down from 2024’s $292 billion, and lower than the nominal totals in 2023, 2022, and 2021 ($297 billion, $338 billion, and $406 billion).
Everywhere we look, President Trump’s $18 trillion is nowhere to be found.
Erica York
Vice President of Federal Tax Policy
Tax Foundation
#45#47 is one of, and arguably, the greatest conman of all time. Promises made, 18 trillion investment claims made; promises not kept and investment claims about 17 and half trillion short. He will eclipse Gregor Macgregor, Victor Lustig, and Bernie Madoff. Compared to their chump change, Trump, who has culted millions via Dominion Fox News in becoming president and loaded the Supreme Court Justices with Yes to Kings, will defraud millions of investors and pension holders of tens of trillions of dollars in the coming global Equity and macroeconomic collapse.
The peak valuations in 1929 and 2026 were caused by terminal cycle extreme overvaluation accelerated by bad debt creation (e.g. 1929 10% margin and e.g. 2026 KKR et.al private fund bad investment in frothy equities. In 1929 there was an initial cascading nonlinear unraveling in the 11/26/27 day :: y/2.5y/2.5y incipient 3-phase Lammert crash fractal decay series.
2026 is different. Most (about 80%) of the 850 trillion derivatives are invested in interest rate hedge bets. With the inevitable bad credit/loan collapse, those hedges would have predicted lowered interest rates. Enter the Israeli-Trump war; the closure of Hormuz; the global sharp price rise in oil, LNG, and hydrocarbon byproducts (including fertilizer); the resulting inflation; and the held US sovereign debt selling pressure (for country’s dependent on imported energy and fertilizer). This sans-strategy and sans-big-picture war has resulted in rising interest rates, exactly opposite of the the derivatives’ hedge investment bets.
With the 600-650 trillion dollar upside down interest rate derivative bets, the incipient 17 Feb 2026 11/28/28 day y/2.5y/2.5y crash fractal decay devaluation will be more severe than 1929.
TEF:
Do you have a title for this piece?