Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims rise, but still mainly lower YoY: post-pandemic residual seasonality still at work?

 – by New Deal democrat The December JOLTS report that was delayed from Tuesday is scheduled to be released later this morning. I may cover it today, or may delay until tomorrow, since there won’t be a jobs report. In the meantime, let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims which, to reiterate, are a […]

Trump Policies Endanger Farmers as Countries Stop Buying Farm Products Due to Trade War

The challenge facing American farmers was unprecedented trade war with China. Almost immediately, China stopped buying soybeans altogether. This action was in retaliation, following the launch of the Trump administration’s unprecedented trade war. Previously, China was purchasing more than $12 billion worth of American soybean products in 2024. This represented approximately half the value of soybeans grown in the […]

January ADP private employment and ISM services reports show increasing stagflation in a weakly growing economy

– by New Deal democrat [Administrative note: the good news is, graphs are back! The bad news is, it is extremely glitchy and energy consuming, so my fingers are still crossed. Basically it boils down to Apple and Google don’t want to interact with one another, and have to be repeatedly dragged, kicking and screaming, into […]

Factors Contributing to U.S. Healthcare Spend

Briefly, just a quick and simple look as what contributes to total US healthcare spending. This is part of a much larger report: “How Has U.S. Health Care Spending Changed Over Time?” I find this part of the report to be interesting. But then, I was a consultant who was looking at throughput analysis. Very […]

The State of Freight is Mainly Recessionary

– by New Deal democrat This morning, we were supposed to get an actual, on-time JOLTS report for December. But with Pastor Mike Johnson having done what he does best, i.e., keeping the House of Representatives out of session while critical deadlines pass, the BLS announced yesterday that several reports, including both Friday’s jobs report for […]

When “tariffs work,” they work at a cost

One story that drew attention last week was the sharp divergence between US aluminum prices and prices elsewhere in the world. The US premium passed $1 per pound for the first time ever, reflecting the higher costs US aluminum users now face relative to their foreign counterparts.   Some commentators characterized the development as a sign that tariffs are working, pointing to announcements that the US may see its first new aluminum smelting plant since 1980.  In fact, what is playing […]

Automotive Manufacturing in Mexico

Since I worked in Mexico for about 26 weeks, I learned quite a bit about what was going on in automotive manufacturing. Some things to understand. The pay is less in Mexico. However, there are benefits for Labor which are covered by government programs.1 “Employee Benefits in Mexico: All You Need To Know.” It is […]

ISM manufacturing for January breaks out to the expansionary upside, with a sidecar of stagflation

 – by New Deal democrat Although it ended almost three months ago, there are still many economic series that have not caught up, including construction spending, which would normally have been reported this morning for December. As of now, it is only updated through October, and November and December are not expected to be reported for […]

Healthcare Cost Variance Across the Population

Just a portion of a much larger KFF article on the affordability of healthcare. This portion of the report looks at severity of needed healthcare and what percentages of the population can afford it. The report splits its findings based upon age, severity, access to insurance, affordability, etc. Age is a large factor with those […]

Buh-bye Bitcoin?

Apart from their utility in criminal finances, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (other than stablecoin) are manifestations of The Greater Fool Theory of Investing. So how is the Bitcoin investment performing for ya? “The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped below $76,000 in thin weekend trading, dropping about 40% from its 2025 peak and revisiting levels last seen […]