Is AI coming for your job?
Gallons of digital ink are spilled weekly about how AI will be a job-destroying juggernaut. But it’s far from clear that all jobs will be vulnerable and on what time scale the AI replacement will occur.
“Who gets laid off first? Writers and editors are at the greatest risk, the report says — 57 percent of such jobs are destined for the chopping block. Maybe they should have learned to code.
“But the coders come in at second place, with 55 percent likely to be pink-slipped. And the hits keep coming. Mathematicians, website developers, database architects, even atmospheric and space scientists are all in big trouble.
“At least journalists catch a break. They’re broken out in a separate category from other writers and given a decent shot at survival. Only 35 percent of these jobs will be AI’d to death.
“Whose jobs are secure? “The three safest jobs are if you are a human dishwasher, if you’re a floor finisher, or if you are a technician in a surgical room,” said Chakravorti. He agreed that AI-powered robots can polish floors, but notes that such machines are still quite expensive compared to a human earning minimum wage. In short, there are two kinds of safe jobs — those that AI can’t do at all, and those it can do, but at too high a price.
“That’s good news for those who work with their hands. Welders, stonemasons, meat packers, railroad workers, and crematory operators are among the safest jobs around. Even fast food workers are considered at little risk of AI replacement. But if you work mainly with your brain, look out.”
*snip*
“So far, only 25 percent of AI dollars have gone into systems for controlling robots, mostly for household floor-cleaning machines such as the iRobot Roomba. Malone blames the physical limitations of today’s robots, which still can’t match the dexterity of human hands.
“AI mainly threatens workers who manage information. But not all of them. Malone noted that some industries demand human empathy, a sense of ethics, and a knack for teamwork. That’s why he thinks health care jobs are relatively safe.”
Which jobs will AI take first?
“Who gets laid off first? Writers and editors are at the greatest risk, the report says — 57 percent of such jobs are destined for the chopping block. Maybe they should have learned to code.
“But the coders come in at second place, with 55 percent likely to be pink-slipped. And the hits keep coming. Mathematicians, website developers, database architects, even atmospheric and space scientists are all in big trouble.
“At least journalists catch a break. They’re broken out in a separate category from other writers and given a decent shot at survival. Only 35 percent of these jobs will be AI’d to death.
“Whose jobs are secure? “The three safest jobs are if you are a human dishwasher, if you’re a floor finisher, or if you are a technician in a surgical room,” said Chakravorti. He agreed that AI-powered robots can polish floors, but notes that such machines are still quite expensive compared to a human earning minimum wage. In short, there are two kinds of safe jobs — those that AI can’t do at all, and those it can do, but at too high a price.
“That’s good news for those who work with their hands. Welders, stonemasons, meat packers, railroad workers, and crematory operators are among the safest jobs around. Even fast food workers are considered at little risk of AI replacement. But if you work mainly with your brain, look out.”
*snip*
“So far, only 25 percent of AI dollars have gone into systems for controlling robots, mostly for household floor-cleaning machines such as the iRobot Roomba. Malone blames the physical limitations of today’s robots, which still can’t match the dexterity of human hands.
“AI mainly threatens workers who manage information. But not all of them. Malone noted that some industries demand human empathy, a sense of ethics, and a knack for teamwork. That’s why he thinks health care jobs are relatively safe.”
Which jobs will AI take first?
Nope.
I am permanently unemployed and plan to stay that way.
@dave,
As a recently minted retiree, I’m not afraid of AI displacing me.
Joel:
No AI robotic has contacted me about replacing you. Has any approached you about a replacement for me?
@Bill,
You’re irreplaceable.
Joel:
Yes, I know. Who would critique you then?
me 3
Human legal researchers are going to be needed to check the legitimacy of AI generated briefs and memos. Also legal malpractice defense lawyers for those facing discipline and/or disbarment for submitting flawed AI generated briefs, memos and documents. Perhaps something similar will popup in medicine and engineering.
@JackD,
So a small cohort of editors/fact checkers. That’s still a lot of jobs shed.
In medicine, I’ve been reading that AI is more accurate than experienced radiologists. While human docs may still have to sign off, that still means fewer radiologists.
Maybe that’s the experience so far but it’s hard to understand why AI produces fictitious legal citations and quotes from cases and statutes and wouldn’t wouldn’t do so in other contexts. It’s not just editors and fact checkers. It’s also those exercising judgment on how to act on the correct facts. I’m guessing it’s probably a better use of time to have humans do the work in the first place. In the legal context, research isn’t mechanical exclusively. It’s also intuitive as one goes along. I’m suggesting that guard rails for implementation of AI recommendations or plans may create jobs. Hard to say if a net loss of jobs results. Sort of a similar issue to those arising from self driving vehicles. There’s a reason why they have humans in the driver’s set as they test them. Problems keep cropping up. In Chicago, driverless delivery vehicles are knocking down bus stop shelters. So far, they’ve been lucky to not kill anyone. Then, too, there’s the historical example of the automobile putting buggy whip makers out of business. A lot of auto line workers more than replaced them. That whole industrial revolution thing. Maybe not this time?
Jack:
Glad to see your comment here. I was wondering about you.
@Jack,
I think that the claims about AI taking jobs are not that it will happen tomorrow or next week. The articles I’ve read suggest time lines over the next ten years. The idea, as I understand it, is not a claim that AI is *now* ready for prime time but that the rate at which it’s improving suggests that it will be way better in a few years than it is today. IOW, it’s probably a mistake to look around and assume current AI is as good as it gets.
These prophecies could be wrong or exaggerated, of course, but there certainly seems to be a lot of money being invested by smart and experienced people (i.e., not me) on the AI revolution.
Joel:
You are correct more likely than not. Is the human mind and intellect far more capable than a machine or computer, I believe it is.
I saw a post from a CEO of an Ai company that they expect that within 18 months that Ai wont AGI, will be what they called POWERAI. and some CEOs expect to be able to eliminate entire departments (starting with HR). course the speed of the Ai takeover of jobs will likely start off small and grow with first companies’ success in successfully eliminating their first department, will lead to many companies starting on their path to AI adoption. course the next step would be integrating AI and Robots to do the physical work, that will likely also take time for companies to adopt to that change too. course i do wonder who buy anything as consumers have no money to buy anything
Joel:
I suspect and just like automation, there will be somewhere, human intervention. In manufacturing, robotics and CNC mchines always have a human to review what they are doing.