Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Debut of the Deranged DOOOMers, 2021 edition: No, the strong advance of the Index of Leading Indicators is not forecasting a recession

The Debut of the Deranged DOOOMers, 2021 edition: No, the strong advance of the Index of Leading Indicators is not forecasting a recession Five to ten years ago, I used to have a lot of fun taking the hide off DOOOMers. You know, the pundits who always find some new statistic or other that absolutely […]

The Crimes of Punishment

Surely someone, not something, must be to blame, must be responsible for whatever catastrophe that may have just occurred. Even CNN knows this. Blaming an event on someone obviates the need to fully explain, to seek a cause; relieves us of the responsibility to understand, to acknowledge the true cause. Seems it is somehow better […]

Income, Spending, and PCE PI Index Up . . . Savings Rate Lowest Since December 2019

Commenter and Blogger RJS, MarketWatch 666, Personal Income Rose 0.5% in October, Personal Spending Rose 1.3%, PCE Price Index Rose 0.6%, Savings Rate Lowest Since December 2019 The October report on Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis includes the month’s data for our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 70% […]

Intellectual Property II

As always, I am bloviating on a matter where I am not expert. I do sometimes wonder what the hell we should do with the strange human invention called intellectual property. It can be argued that it was a brilliant invention. For example the US Constitutional Convention wrote “To promote the Progress of Science and […]

3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 2.1% Rate, Revised from 2.0%

Blogger and Commenter RJS, 3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 2.1% Rate, Revised from 2.0%; All on Inventories, No Real Final Sales The Second Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 2.1% annual rate over the quarter, revised from the 2.0% […]

Weekly Indicators for November 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the roiling of the financial waters (on thin trading, with all of the A-list movers and shakers away from their desks) on Friday, the underlying indicators for the economy in all timeframes […]

Freeing Former Students of Loan Debt, a Conversation

An Intro and some history: Alan Collinge at Student Loan Justice Organization. Alan has collected 1,065,931 signatures on his petition asking President Joe Biden to cancel student loan debt. His new goal is to reach 1.5 million signatures. If you believe in the cause you should sign his petition. Petition · President Biden: Cancel Federal […]

Oct. Durable Goods: New Orders Down 0.5%, Shipments Up 1.5%, Inventory Up 0.6%

RJS at MarketWatch 666, October Durable Goods: New Orders Down 0.5%, Shipments Up 1.5%, Inventories Up 0.6% The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for October (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely followed new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased by $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent […]

New home sales for October continue slow upward trend

New home sales for October continue slow upward trend New home sales, while very noisy and heavily revised, tend to lead all of the other housing indicators, even permits. The heavy revisions figure, well, heavily, into this morning’s report. New home sales (blue in the graphs below) usually slightly lead to the much less volatile […]

Impacting Oil Pricing with SPR Oil Releases

Commenter and Blogger RJS at Focus on Fracking and MarketWatch 666 brought up the past history of US SPR oil releases and the impact on oil prices in the Comments section. Since 1990, each time releases (SPR) have been made, there has been a countering reduction of oil by OPEC which could include Russia this […]