– by New Deal democrat There are some economic and financial indicators that aren’t classic leading or lagging indicators. Rather, they are “over-sensitive” in one direction or another. Two good examples are heavy truck sales and the unemployment rate: they are over-sensitive to the downside: they lead going in to recessions, but lag coming out. […]

September 19, 2024 Letters from an American “Democracy depends on at least two healthy political parties that can compete for voters on a level playing field. Although the men who wrote the Constitution hated the idea of political parties, they quickly figured out the party’s tie voters to the mechanics of Congress and the presidency.” […]

These guys are ahead of us. What Scared Ford’s CEO in China, WSJ Jim Farley had just returned from China. What the Ford Motor chief executive found during the May visit made him anxious: The local automakers were pulling away in the electric-vehicle race.  In an early-morning call with fellow board member John Thornton, an exasperated Farley unloaded.  The […]

 – by New Deal democrat You may recall that last week I wrote that beginning this week and for the next 6+ months, initial claims would be up against some very tough comparisons from 2023 and would be the ultimate true test of whether there has been unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the numbers. Well, this […]

“The Fed Makes a Large Rate Cut and Forecasts More to Come” Jeanna Smialak Writes “The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday by half a percentage point, an unusually large move and a clear signal that central bankers think they are winning their war against inflation and are turning their attention to protecting the […]

– by New Deal democrat Residential construction permits and starts bounced back from their July Hurricane-Beryl affected decline, but housing units under construction declined below the threshold for hoisting a yellow “recession watch” flag for this sector. At the same time, I continue to suspect that we are rising from lows in the most leading […]

Kevin Drum has a short piece on the recent surge in auto insurance rates. He doesn’t offer any explanation in his post, but the comment thread has suggestions: • a combination of increase in bad driving and lack of enforcement; • fender benders are much more costly since all the self-driving gear as well as […]

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August, Calculated Risk From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual […]

And now, some good news: industrial and manufacturing production rebounded strongly in August  – by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession […]

Robert’s proposal as to what should be in presidential candidate Kamal Harris’s future goals for the nation and its citizens. They are good targets. The issue being whether she can convince a Congress these are worthy to pursue regardless of politics. The key to what should be (and hopefully will be) Kamalanomics by Robert Reich […]