Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

August CPI: further important progress towards 2% YoY level, marred (only) by a surprise uptick in shelter

– by New Deal democrat August CPI, with the conspicuous exception of shelter, continued to come in tame. And the list of other “problem children” decreased by 1, as only food away from home (restaurants) and transportation services (motor vehicle insurance and repairs) remain. Let’s get the headlines out of the way:  – Headline CPI continued increased […]

what happened to advocacy of a 4% inflation target ?

and of a 3% inflation target? There is some risk of recession in the USA because the FED insists on driving inflation down to 2%.  Oddly back in the naughts when inflation was persistently below the 2% target, there was more discussion of raising the target. Then IMF chief economist discussed it. Paul Krugman advocated […]

AZ – Best Build to Rent Single Family Housing Market

This is a brief introduction to the housing state of affairs in Arizona. It is building up quickly. Builders, declarants, and corporate HOAs have a great swath of control over what is occurring. None of which has controlling input from residents. What I am also seeing in the Planning and Zoning Commissions is ignorance on […]

Colorado crop fraud

Farming is a risky business. Always has been. A federal program to keep farmers in business during droughts seems like a good idea to me. Sadly, it’s also a target for fraud: “On a normal day, the promising storms produced snow or rain that would fall onto a system of official weather stations at airstrips […]

Leading Indicators from Friday’s jobs report

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic news today or tomorrow, so let’s take a more detailed look at the leading indicators from Friday’s jobs report. It turns out, the news wasn’t nearly as bad as the headline employment number. Let’s start with the negative stuff. The simple story is, manufacturing is in a […]

Beyond price controls:  Ozempic for all who want it, and a strategic food reserve

Suppose that you wake up tomorrow and discover that a sadistic alien has turned you into an economist.  You are just getting over your shock at your new predicament (“How will I make friends?  Will anyone ever trust me again?  At least I’m not a lawyer.”) when Kamala Harris, responding to voter concerns about inflation, […]

Making Trump Tax Cuts Permanent has Medicaid the Top Target for Cuts

I did some rewriting on this particular commentary and added two charts from another commentary (at the bottom). The point being to give graphical depiction of the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and who it benefited the most. You can see (for whatever reason) why the Republican Party is pushing for […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for September 2 – 6 2024

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the wake of yesterday’s weak jobs report, bond yields and mortgage rates declined to 12 months+ lows, commodities declined across the board, stocks sold off sharply, and the 10 years to 2-year Treasury spread un-inverted. That’s bad news and good news. […]

Yes, the Profit Share Has Risen Since the Pandemic

Interesting and brief piece by Dean Baker of CEPR in relation to price gouging. There continues to be a debate about the extent to which “price-gouging” or “greedflation” has been responsible for the rise in prices since the pandemic. We can debate the extent to which companies were able to take advantage of monopoly power […]

Empty Promises, Big Paydays: Kroger and Albertsons CEOs Fail to Justify Largest Supermarket Merger in History

by American Economic Liberties Project Looks like things are being said that are not legally enforceable. Let me see . . . Deleted emails, Albertson’s CEO can walk away with a $40-something million bonus if he can close the deal, a special dividend to private equity investors worth $4 billion and paid with borrowed money, […]