Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Soft Landing ?

A soft landing (disinflation without a recession) looks possible.  Also the remaining threat is the FED’s sticking with high interest rates, even though inflation is at a very reasonable level (I personally publicly argued that the inflation target should be 4%) and will almost certainly decline even if unemployment remains low. The change can be […]

Jobless claims: all good news

 – by New Deal democrat The weekly news from jobless claims continues to be good. The hypotheses that the summer increase was unresolved post-pandemic seasonality, plus the several week spike post-Beryl was all about Texas, both have held up very well. And that has continued to be the case against more challenging YoY comparisons as the […]

Day 3 of the Courts Review of the FTC v Kroger Merger

Devastating Impact of Proposed Kroger/Albertsons Merger on Good Union Jobs Scrutinized in Day 3 of Merger Hearing, Economic Liberties Portland, OR — After the third day of the Federal Trade Commission v. Kroger-Albertsons hearing in the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, the American Economic Liberties Project released the following summary. As posted by Research […]

The US economy is the envy of the first world

Since the beginning of the Covid epidemic, the US economy has performed better than European economies and the Eurozone average. This comparison is useful, and not just for boasting rights. Fiscal policy in the USA and in the Eurozone has been dramatically different – The US Federal Government implemented Six very large fiscal stimuli: The […]

July JOLTS report: relentless deterioration?

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. In July, it painted a picture of what looks like pretty relentless deterioration. The theme for three of the four data series I track was the same: job […]

Immigration déjà vu

Trump is promising mass deportations if he’s elected. He claims this will create jobs and economic growth. We’ve been here before. “In the 1930s, state and local governments deported 400,000 to 500,000 people of Mexican descent, promising to create jobs for Americans during the Great Depression. What actually happened? The employment of native-born Americans dropped […]

Day 2 of the Courts Review of the FTC v Kroger Merger

We have already posted on Grocery Stores artificially holding prices high and the use of another entity gathering those prices and supplying them to various entities. In day two, Kroger’s use of Albertson’s higher pricing to set their own pricing is a ” strategic avoidance of lowering pricing.” Read on, I will gather up Day […]

Manufacturing and construction together suggest weak but still expanding leading sectors

 – by New Deal democrat As usual we start the month with two important reports on the leading sectors of  manufacturing and construction. First, the ISM manufacturing index showed contraction yet again, with the headline number “less negative” by way of increasing from 46.8 to 47.2, and the more leading new orders subindex declining sharply […]

For Labor Day: 4 measures of worker wage growth

 – by New Deal democrat On this Labor Day, it is fitting to update the economic state of ordinary workers. There is a variety of economic data series to track both average and median wages: Without further ado, here is the update for all four. Average hourly wages are updated through July; the other three […]

More on Why Albertsons Should Not Be Allowed to Combine with Kroger

We have shopped at both stores and also Frys which is also a part of Kroger. Of the three, Ftys is less costly. Our Frys always seems to be out of product. We end up at Bashas to fill out the rest of or grocery shopping, or Sprouts which has excellent veggies, or make the […]