Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Trump is worse than al Qaeda

A consequence of the 9/11 attacks was that the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ were shut down for a week. “When trading resumed that week of September 17, 2001 . . . over the following five days, the Dow Jones average decreased more than 14%, the S&P 500 tumbled 11.6% and Nasdaq fell […]

Confusion in the Camp of the Enemy

Trump’s tariffs have appalled all right-thinking people. They have also appalled many right wing people. Trump has long since lead us to the strange state of agreeing with Mitch McConnell, but now he has united all but the most servile right against him (unfortunately Trump serfs control Congress and maybe, the Supreme Court). The Wall […]

Economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services on the cusp on yellow caution flag

– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three-month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In March the expansionary headline and new […]

Jobless claims continue tame

– by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021: Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by […]

Congressional Control Goes to Trump and Musk

GOP’s subservience to Trump and Musk is also problematic for Democrats featured at MSNBC originally. The GOP is throwing out the powers that the Constitution gave Congress to better bow to the Republicans scrambling to keep Trump and Musk from hurting their constituents. The Constitution’s authors clearly saw Congress as being the first among equals in the […]

Versatility of conviction

The tariffs were always about extortion, soliciting bribes. They were never about helping the economy, balancing the budget, trade deficits or reducing taxes. “After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. “Trump said he would […]

High Tariffs with International Value-Added Chains

Things are moving so fast, that I am a day late with this. I argue that Trump’s insane tariffs will, in some cases, impose higher costs on US than foreign manufacturers. There are two key issues. First tariffs are charged the full value of a good, not the value added in the target foreign company. […]

The Trump Administration hates veterans (cont’d)

Trump called fallen American soldiers “suckers” and “losers.” Presumably because they didn’t find a podiatrist who could claim they had “bone spurs.” Now the Trump Administration is punishing living veterans for their service. In the latest episode: “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs said Thursday that it will end a mortgage-rescue program designed to help […]