Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

American political (and military) support for Israel appears to be on borrowed time – maybe 10 years

– by New Deal democrat Occasionally on Sundays I have posted on things other than the economy. Some dramatic poll results I saw this past week called out for such a post. A popular poster over at Bluesky named Micah posted what comes pretty close to my overall view of the 2024 Presidential campaign: But […]

TDS and the economics of Trump’s war on Iran

The Trumpenproletariat loves to point to those who disagree with Dear Leader as having Trump Derangement Syndrome. But like everything they accuse others of, it’s what they’re guilty of. “A week ago I asked whether global energy markets have “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” I was being a bit arch because I didn’t mean in the sense […]

Self-sufficiency in oil has done nothing at all to insulate the U.S. economy

Self-sufficiency does not mean stable pricing in the United States as Paul Krugman explains in his earlier March commentary. There is no allegiance to US citizens by oil companies. Give the tax breaks and citizens still pay. “The Impotence of Drill, Baby, Drill,” Paul Krugman, March 10, 2026 America produces a lot of oil. It […]

Expert analysis on Iran

I’ve had several Iranian colleagues throughout my faculty career. Unsurprisingly, none were anti-American. Here’s an interview with Juan Cole and Mojtaba Mahdavi, two Middle East experts, on the current events in Iran. They discuss the politics in Iran and among the Iranian diaspora. Both Cole and Mahdavi point to the Netanyahu ambition of hegemony in […]

Economy Will Not Absorb This Oil Shock

AB: A review and forecast of what is happening and what will happen over the next few weeks due to the oil shortage brought on by Trump’s attack on Iran. The impact of which, Trump’s blunder will cause many more issues economically. This is not Venezuela. “The Economy Doesn’t Have the Room to Absorb This […]

Fuel Shortage in Asia

I am always curious about what happens in other countries when there is an oil shortage. In this case it is fuel for cabs to cart westerners and Europeans around. For them, this is serious. No fuel, potentially no income from westerners transporting them. In Bangkok, Thais make a living shuffling westerners around. We have […]

Trump giveth and Trump taketh away

While crowing about how it’s sinking the Iranian economy, the Trump Administration is literally keeping it afloat. “In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water,” Bessent said on Fox Business Thursday. The US is already allowing Iranian oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and that nation has […]

Real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls have continued to increase, negativing recession. Here’s why

– by New Deal democrat There’s no major economic news today, so let me take this opportunity in view of last week’s update to the CPI, to update one of my favorite labor market indicators: real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls. As a brief refresher, over the past 60 years this has been a very good and reliable […]

Tariffs Don’t Deliver

Unless you like being beat up? When I was consulting with Ingersoll Engineers, I would handle the materials and supply side of the projects. Much of my time was spent looking at systems, warehousing, inventory, and purchasing. The cost sits in those areas. Depending on the throughput within the factory, you could streamline much of […]