Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

‘Escalation Trap’ in Iran as Trump Moves Forward

Kind of hard not to say something about the Iran situation and Trump. This is purposeful by Trump and his political supporters. He feels empowered. The reports from March 2026 suggest the US is increasingly entangled in its “tar baby” scenario with Iran. Initial and limited military goals have escalated into a difficult-to-exit conflict. Increasing […]

Another Look at the Mueller Report

Excellent recital of what was in the Mueller report as told by Joyce Vance. Joyce was also a part of the Mueller investigation. Bob Mueller’s legacy to us was uncovering the truth when it was difficult to do so and holding people accountable. All of which various political figures did their best to block the […]

What are the Economic risks with Iran?

About a seven-minute read: Gasoline prices in AZ, (in the part where I live) as of late March 2026, are high. They average around $4.21 per gallon for regular, with some locations exceeding $4.39. Prices have surged significantly, following broader metro Phoenix trends, with options ranging from $4.159 at Circle K and QuikTrip to higher […]

Updating the K.I.S.S. estimate of the coming shock in CPI

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic data today, so let me update something I posted last week, in which I warned readers to expect a shock in the next CPI report.  I wrote that “based on past history and using conservative assumptions, the model forecasts a 1.8% increase in CPI between March and […]

water security and food production

In Arizona, we are starting to see many proposals for data centers, Chip, etc. and similar manufacturers. It is interesting as there is a lot of obvious large building going on in Arizona. I would not think there is a lot of natural resource available to sustain the type of industry coming to Arizona. It […]

The bond market sends an unprecedented message

 – by New Deal democrat Something not just unusual, but unprecedented has happened in the bond market this year. Normally, when an inverted yield curve (where earlier maturing bonds yield more than later maturing ones) regularizes, or un-inverts (where yields get higher the later the maturing), it is because the Fed has lowered rates sufficiently […]