Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The end of IVF in Alabama?

One of the corollaries to the “life begins at conception” view is that all zygotes created by in vitro fertilization are fully human, so their deliberate destruction is ipso facto murder. This would effectively end IVF, since most zygotes will never be implanted. So sayeth the Alabama Supreme Court: “An embryo created through in-vitro fertilization […]

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectively real retail sales and inducatrial production. Retail sales can be volatile monthly, and about once in a typical year they either faceplant or […]

Housing construction essentially stable in January

Housing construction essentially stable in January  – by New Deal democrat I’m on the road, so I need to keep this brief, but fortunately I can give you the essence of this most important housing report with little difficulty. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% from their peak during the autumn, and are about equal to […]

Paranoia, passivity, and keeping reality at bay

Paranoia, passivity, and keeping reality at bay, INFIDEL753 Blog, Infidel753 This post is about psychology, not politics.  It may not look that way at first, but bear with me.] Many on the left feel a persistent anxiety about the danger of large-scale right-wing political violence.  Much of the right-wing population is heavily armed (though lately many […]

Initial jobless claims remain positive

Initial claims remain positive  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one-week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week […]

NDd’s long leading forecast for 2024

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey data, there is enough to take a look at what the next 12 months probably have in store. This article is up […]

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing  – by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy (mainly gasoline), which peaked in June 2022 and roughed in June 2023, and housing, which peaked […]

Open Thread February 13 2024 Inflation cooled again in January . . .

but came in above Wall Street’s expectations, another sign that the Federal Reserve’s path to interest-rate cuts is far from settled. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that consumer prices rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, versus a December gain of 3.4%. That marked the lowest reading since June. Inflation at 3.1% Reflects “Stubborn […]