Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Long leading indicators in Q1 GDP point in absolutely opposite directions

– by New Deal democrat The advance report for Q1 GDP was a study in contrasts, both in terms of the leading indicators and also the sources of strength. Let me start with the general information: on a nominal basis, GDP in Q1 increased a mediocre 1.4% at an annual rate (blue). After adjusting for inflation, […]

Quote of the day

The crisis is epistemic. The cognitive infrastructure that allows citizens to share a world, to deliberate together, to recognize one another as participants in a common project, has been corroded by industrial-scale disinformation, by the collapse of shared informational ecosystems, by the deliberate cultivation of factional reality. ~Mike Brock

What About AmTrak Performance in 2025?

Tracking 2025 Domestic Performance by Amtrak; It is an alternative to expensive gasoline, dangerous highways, crowded airport and increasing costs. It is profitable . . . The issues? Not enough trains and cars, Old equipment. Increasing demand. And not enough support to put another method of travel in place besides cars and planes. About time […]

Gasoline Prices per Gallon are Up

As if you did not know this? Fortunately, our vehicle is efficient, our stores are close, and we do not have to be anywhere U.S. gasoline prices jump to highest since 2022 U.S. gasoline (UNG) prices extended their climb Thursday, with AAA’s national average for regular fuel reaching $4.30 a gallon as drivers absorbed the […]

April ISM manufacturing: how long can the AI manufacturing Boom keep exploding prices from creating a consumer implosion?

– by New Deal democrat April data started out as usual with the ISM manufacturing index. There was some good news, but mainly bad news. The good news was that the headline ISM number (blue in the graph below) remained positive, and was unchanged at 52.7 (recall that any number above 50.0 indicates expansion). The more […]

Teachers Pay and Benefits

A new survey underscores the importance of professional salaries and benefits like paid parental leave in keeping educators in the profession—and how collective bargaining can have a major impact. “How Teachers View Their Pay and Benefits” Tim Walker, Senior Writer Ask most K-12 public school teachers what would make them stay in the profession, better […]

Bangkok

I do not recall being in this section of Bangkok. As it is, Bangkok is an interesting city having quite a bit of history to it. The residents are nice to Americans and others. Most are trying to just make a living. They look to foreign visitors to make part of their income. I found […]

Blockbuster initial jobless claims report suggests unemployment could decline all the way to 4.0%

– by New Deal democrat I wasn’t able to get to either the GDP report or the jobless claims report yesterday. I’m going to hold off on the GDP report until next week, because there was a lot going on, but this morning (before the ISM manufacturing Index comes out) let’s take a look at jobless […]

Stagflationary real personal income, real spending on durable goods were recessionary in March, but consumers and manufacturers haven’t retrenched

 – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also give us an idea of what is likely to happen with regard to jobs […]