The long leading forecast through year end 2023 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat Normally in late January I update my top-line long leading forecast for the entire year. A little late this year, it is now up at Seeking Alpha. If you follow my updates on the leading indicators, the result isn’t very […]
Existing home sales and prices decline further, BUT . . . – by New Deal democrat Even though existing home sales make up about 90% of the total market, they have much less economic impact than new home construction. They are best used to confirm trends. In January they continued to confirm that sales have […]
Calculated Risk: MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022” calculatedriskblog.com, Bill McBride by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2023 01:42:00 PM From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 percent of all loans outstanding at the end […]
This is a long one and a C&P. Other than putting it up at Angry Bear, I can not take credit for this one. What I can say is . . . they are not the first ones to accuse Supply Chain for much of the inflationary issues we have had as a nation. In […]
The President, Joe Biden, talking about the economy. In many ways, he made the right moves in protecting us from a reoccurrence of a similar 2008 event. This came after WallStreet blew up the economy by gambling, could not ante up, and government did not put enough on the table to rescue the economy. Main […]
Slight decline in housing construction: the negative actual economic impact has not yet begun – by New Deal democrat Housing permits (gold) increased slightly in January from their December lows, while the more volatile housing starts (blue) declined again. The much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) also declined again to a new […]
Initial claims: nobody is getting laid off, but slight weakness in continuing claims compared with 2022 – by New Deal democrat Initial claims remained below 200,000 at 195,000, while the 4 week average increased very slightly to 189,500. Continuing claims increased to 1,696,000, the third highest number in over a year: Holiday seasonality has ended. […]
Despite sharp rebounds in retail sales and manufacturing production, both metrics are on the cusp of being recessionary – by New Deal democrat Retail sales for January rose strongly in January,up 30% in nominal terms and up 2.4% after accounting for inflation. While that looks great, it only reverses the two downward readings of November […]
I believe Ford reported $2.2 billion in losses in 2022 writing down the value of two big investments, struggling with high costs, and also supply chain problems. In 2023, there is still going to be volatility on chips, On the older chips used in the auto industry, there is still capacity constraint.” I also can’t […]
“This will be a national story for about 48 hours. Those folks will swoop in, leave and move on. It’ll be an MSU story, part of our community story, forever. And, for some, a new fear and a loss of peace will be part of it.“ After the 48 hours passes? Similar to the other […]