Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

3 graphic signs of financial stress

3 graphic signs of financial stress  – by New Deal democrat The theme of my weekly “high frequency” economic indicators update over the weekend was the sudden deterioration in some measurements of financial stress. Tomorrow we’ll find out that house prices as measured by both the FHFA and Case Shiller have decline further, and that […]

Everything you didn’t know you need to know about the Postal Service’s new commercial

Everything you didn’t know you need to know about the Postal Service’s new commercial, Save the Post Office, Steve Hutkins. Last week the USPS Link had an article — titled “Get a ‘Move’ on” — announcing the Postal Service’s new TV commercial. The commercial is called “Orchestrated Delivery,” and its theme is “We’re reinventing our network” — […]

There is now only one significant manufacturing datapoint that is not flat or down – but it’s the one the NBER relies upon

There is now only one significant manufacturing datapoint that is not flat or down – but it’s the one the NBER relies upon  – by New Deal democrat I am increasingly of the opinion that at the moment, the only two economic data series that are important are nonfarm payrolls and the personal consumption expenditure deflator. […]

New home sales for February increase; likely bottomed last July

New home sales for February increase; likely bottomed last July  – by New Deal democrat Most of what you probably read elsewhere focuses on new home prices, which after finally declining -0.7% YoY in January, rebounded to +2.5% YoY. As is usual, prices  follow sales YoY with a considerable lag (note since prices are not seasonally […]

February existing home sales confirm prices have declined

February existing home sales confirm prices have declined, but bottom in sales and construction may be in  – by New Deal democrat There were only two noteworthy takeaways from the February existing home sales report: (1) like mortgage applications, permits, and starts, existing home sales responded to lower mortgage rates (a decline from just over […]

Average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages for February

Average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages for February 2023  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news today, so let’s update a couple of income indicators important to average American working households. Namely, because we now have the inflation report for February as well as payrolls, we can update average and aggregate nonsupervisory wages. […]

The Fed’s New Supply Chain Pressure Gauge just went Negative

Putting on a different hat today. My background includes supply chain management. I am looking at what the industry experts are seeing and whether I agree with them. Much of what I have seen over the last two years is a repeat of 2008. And again, we are waking up late to the beginning of […]